Jul. 3--Candice Fennell of Harrison walked into JCPenney at Pittsburgh Mills mall on Thursday with plans to do some shopping for a wedding she and her husband will attend in Iowa.

The sales signs announcing discounts from 15 percent to more than 50 percent didn't escape her attention.

"I've noticed that all of the stores are having terrific sales," she said. "They're just trying to get people through the doors."

The deep discounting so early in the summer season is great news for bargain hunters like Fennell, but worrisome for retailers.

The volume and size of the discounts for mall-based apparel retailers is about 10 percent higher than a year ago, even though inventory is down 20 percent, said BMO Capital Markets analyst John Morris.

JCPenney at Pittsburgh Mills has its summer merchandise marked up to 70 percent off and its swimsuits on clearance, a manager said. The store is preparing for its back-to-school sales and fall merchandise line.

Higher-end retail stores are running deep discounts this summer to clean out the inventory before the back-to-school sales start up, said Louis Mallet, a partner in the Strategic Resource Group, a marketing consulting firm in New York City.

Some independent retailers such as Kevin Miscik, owner of Lapel's A Fine Men's Clothier, a specialty men's store in Greensburg, also are offering 50 percent discounts to move summer stock.

"We're making the summer last longer, to give it more time to sell," said Miscik.

By holding off on replacing the summer clothing line, Miscik said he saves money that he would spend on fall clothing, which sells more slowly on hot August days.

But stretching the summer season may not help all retail stores. The same-store sales in June have registered a 6 percent decline, worse than projected, and worse than the 4.6 percent decline in May, said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers.

The retail industry probably will not see year-over-year gains in sales until the fourth quarter of the year, which includes the traditional holiday shopping season, according to the National Retail Federation's retail sales outlook for the summer.

"We forecasted a 1,000-day retail recession two years ago, and we're about 550 days through it," Mallet said.

The improvement in consumers' confidence in the economy since February has not translated into much more activity at the cash register because confidence levels are still well below the 100 reading that's considered healthy. Consumer confidence, which surged in April and May, is projected to be virtually unchanged for June when The Conference Board releases figures Tuesday.

"The consumers are being very cautious in their purchases. They're trading down to cheaper labels," Mallet said.

Rainy weather has dampened business, and some analysts wonder whether shoppers are sensing that the economy won't be getting any better soon, even as consumer spending makes up 70 percent of America's economic activity.

The Pittsburgh region's economy has not been the retailer's best friend during this recession.

Unemployment in the seven-county Pittsburgh region hit a 17-year high in May, rising to 7.5 percent, up 0.2 of a percentage point from April. There are about 90,000 people unemployed in the region, which is about 33,000 more than a year ago in May, according to the state.

Companies that have not laid off workers are cutting back on work schedules, such as Kennametal Inc. in Unity, which has required workers to take one week of unpaid vacation in each of the last three months.

The region's retail sector has not been immune to job losses, sustaining a loss of about 3,300 jobs from May 2008 to May 2009.

Despite the uncertainty over the economy, Miscik said his customers are looking for value for their money.

"People will come in and want to buy something good in a down economy. They're stretching their dollars ... and they want to get the best for (their money)," Miscik said.

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