The economy has been mired in a deep recession since December 2007, the unemployment rate keeps climbing and the financial sector, while on the mend, remains dangerously fragile.

"The perfect storm of financial market meltdown, credit market freeze and economic contraction seems to be passing, but the U.S. economy remains afloat, albeit battered," the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association wrote in late June.

In a subdued forecast, the association's economists see economic shrinkage slowing to a 2 percent annual rate for the quarter that ended Tuesday. These analysts, mostly from Wall Street firms, project that growth will resume from July through September, but only at an annual rate of eight-tenths of 1 percent, accelerating to a 1.9 percent annual rate in the final three months of this year.

From there, the economy will gain steam, but will grow at only a 2.1 percent rate next year, the association predicts. Government stimulus spending and the need for businesses to restock after months of shedding excess inventory will fuel the growth.

"Our group, like everybody else, anticipates that the economy right now is transitioning from a steep decline, pulling out of that downdraft," said James Glassman, the chief economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Glassman said growth wouldn't be robust enough to halt the rising unemployment rate, which he projects could go up from its June rate of 9.5 percent to around 10 percent. He said that the jobless rate might begin to fall by next spring or early next summer.

That means that the next year is unlikely to feel much like a recovery, and it'll be about 12 more months before Americans begin to feel secure about their jobs.

"There won't be enough job growth until 2011 to meaningfully reduce unemployment. It will be a slog," said Mark Zandi, the chief economist for forecaster Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pa.

This sluggish rebound is what Alan Levenson, the chief economist for investment manager T.