Jul. 5--Chances are that the U.S. economy will end its dismal slide in the next few months, then start a pokey recovery. Get ready for a strange economic show.

If certain analysts are right, we'll see a recovery of the sort not seen in modern memory.

The normal engines of growth are still derailed. Consumers are hog-tied by debt and frightened by unemployment after the worst economic slump since 1982. The housing industry will be flat on its back, and chastened banks will stay tight with a buck.

That leaves the government to power the country out of its slump through massive spending, possibly accompanied by an overdue spate of business investment.

All this has strong implications for investors, who are hoping to see their suffering 401(k)s revive before they're old and gray. The investments that made you money before the latest meltdown may be the wrong picks today.

The consensus among economists is that gross domestic product will bottom out later this year and resume slow growth through 2010. The stock market seems to be playing along with that script. The Standard & Poor's 500 index is up 32.5 percent since hitting bottom on March 9. That fits the pattern of past recessions, in which the stock market generally leads the way out.

Some think the spring rally will fizzle in the summer heat. But the longer it lasts, the more analysts will conclude that the bull is back, and that it will stick around for a while.

It won't be the stampeding beast we knew in the 1990s, nor will it supply the steady advance we saw from 2002 to 2007, says Bill Greiner, chief investment officer at UMB Asset Management.

Instead, this mangy bull will stagger and lurch, taking two steps forward, slipping back a step, then repeating the drunken dance.

The first lurch has just concluded, Greiner said. Financial stocks, which plunged deepest in the crash, had the biggest bounce-back. Major bank stocks doubled from March to May, before settling back some by the end of June.

From here on, Greiner thinks, the market will be driven by a structural shift in the economy of the sort not seen since the bleak days of the late 1970s and early 1980s.

STRAINED CONSUMERS

The U.S. went into the current recession as a consumer-driven economy. But now consumers are deep in hock. Household debt tops 140 percent of personal income, up from less than 80 percent in 1990. Families are straining to pay it down, but the process could take years. Meanwhile, frightened baby boomers will be saving more, trying to rebuild their 401(k)s as retirement draws nigh.

The bottom line: Consumer spending may pick up a bit as the recession fades, but it won't lead the way in the recovery. The new economic drivers will be government spending and capital investment, Greiner says.

The government's $787 billion stimulus program is just getting legs, and much of that will go to infrastructure. That makes equipment makers such as John Deere and Caterpillar a good play. Greiner also likes Jacobs Engineering.

Capital spending by corporations plunged during the recession. That should bounce back too as companies drive to reduce their operating costs. Technology companies such as Oracle should benefit, says Greiner.

Joe Terril of Terril & Co. in Des Peres is thinking along the same lines. He likes St.