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Jobless Rate Surges in Miami-Dade; 1 in 10 Unemployed: Miami-Dade's Unemployment Rate Had Been Lower Than the State Average for Most of the Current Recession. But Not Anymore.
Saturday, July 18, 2009 5:56 AM


(Source: The Miami Herald)trackingBy Scott Andron, The Miami Herald

Jul. 18--In September 1983, the Mariel Boatlift was a recent memory. Dan Marino was a rookie with the Dolphins. The real-estate market was in disarray following overbuilding in the Brickell area. South Beach was still awaiting rebirth. And Miami Vice wouldn't premiere for another year.

That was the last time Miami-Dade's unemployment rate was as high as it is now. The county's jobless rate hit 10.6 percent in June, according to government figures released Friday.

It's the worst jobless rate since September 1983, when it was 10.8 percent. That was actually down from the beginning of that year, when it was 13.7 percent.

That time had some similarities with the current downturn, such as the real-estate crash, said Paul George, a historian at Miami Dade College. But in other ways, the atmosphere was different.

"You would see people lining up in the street to see if someone would pick them up and give them a job," recalled MDC President Eduardo Padron.

Until recently, Miami-Dade's job market was slightly stronger than the rest of the state's. But Friday's numbers showed the county with the same jobless rate as the state as a whole. The national rate was 9.5 percent.

Broward fared somewhat better, with a rate of 9.4 percent. Unlike the state, national and Dade rates, Broward's numbers are not adjusted to remove the effect of normal seasonal changes -- such as staffing cuts at hotels during the summer. Without these adjustments, Miami-Dade's rate would be 11.5.

From April to May, Dade's adjusted jobless rate jumped from 8.2 percent to 9.9 percent, prompting economist Tony Villamil to question whether the change might be a statistical fluke. Now that the rate has jumped again, Villamil said it's more likely a real indication of the labor market.

Villamil, dean of the business school at St. Thomas University and a former undersecretary of commerce under President George H.W. Bush, said he hopes planned public works projects, such as the new Marlins stadium and a tunnel to the Port of Miami, will give the local economy a much-needed kick.

"We need to inject spending into the economy," he said.

It's not clear where unemployment will go from here. Most experts think it's unlikely to go much higher, but they can't rule it out.

"I don't think it's going to get a lot worse," said Villamil, provided the stimulus construction projects start promptly.

An official state committee of economists is expected to offer a prediction next week.

State labor department economist Rebecca Rust said the current economy shows many signs typical of an economic "trough," or bottom.




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