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Similar Tone in Earnings Reports, but CSX Stock Up While Landstar Down
Monday, July 20, 2009 1:53 PM


(Source: The Florida Times-Union)trackingBy Mark Basch, The Florida Times-Union, Jacksonville

Jul. 20--CSX Corp. and Landstar System Inc. were the first Jacksonville companies to announce second-quarter earnings, and their reports last week basically told the same stories. Both companies' earnings were sharply lower, as the recession affects the volume of their freight hauling businesses. While officials of both the railroad (CSX) and the trucking (Landstar) companies expressed uncertainty about business conditions for the second half of this year, both think things at least aren't getting worse.

But there was a major difference between the two reports. CSX's stock rose $4.41 Tuesday and Wednesday to $36.95 after its earnings report, its highest level since December. But Landstar's stock fell by 8 cents to $34.40 Thursday after its report.

So what was the difference? For one thing, expectations.

CSX's earnings from continuing operations fell 24 percent to 72 cents a share, but that was 10 cents higher than the average forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Landstar's adjusted earnings, which fell 34 percent to 37 cents, were 3 cents lower than the Thomson forecast.

Another factor helping CSX's stock last week was that it was trading fairly cheaply before the earnings report. J.P. Morgan analyst Thomas Wadewitz wrote in a research note that CSX's stock was trading at only 10.7 times his estimated 2010 earnings before the second quarter report. "We continue to believe that reward to risk is attractive," he said.

Meanwhile, John Larkin of Stifel, Nicolaus wrote that Landstar was trading at about 15 times his projected 2011 earnings, leaving "insufficient upside potential to warrant a buy rating on the company's shares." He rates Landstar as a "hold."

Larkin lowered his earnings estimates for Landstar slightly after the second-quarter report.

"While our view of the company's prospects are basically unchanged following its earnings release, our revised model reflects our view that a recovery in freight volume is likely to be somewhat slower than we expected earlier," he wrote.

FORTRESS RETHINKING LOAN: According to a Wall Street Journal story last week, Fortress Investment Group LLC is negotiating with itself to restructure a $1.6 billion loan for Jacksonville-based Florida East Coast Industries.

It's a bit confusing, but investment funds run by New York-based Fortress two years ago acquired Florida East Coast Industries, which operates the Florida East Coast Railway and real estate company Flagler Development Group.




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