In the so-called BRIC nations _ Brazil, Russia, India and China _ they have soared by an average of about 64 percent so far this year, according to the investment blog Seeking Alpha. That's led many observers to think the four are poised to power the global economy out of recession and into renewed growth.

Don't bet on it. The global economy this year will still suffer its steepest contraction in trade and industrial production since the Great Depression; despite their dramatic growth, the BRIC nations aren't powerful enough to power a global rebound; and all four of them face their own economic problems.

"Three of the four BRIC countries are leading the rest of the world out," said Jay Bryson, a global economist for Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, N.C. "But that doesn't mean they are pulling the world out. That's an important distinction. Combined, those countries account for only about 15 percent" of the world economy.

The United States and the European Union each account for 23 percent of global economic activity and, "There's no way that 15 percent is going to pull 46 percent," Bryson said.

This year's global outlook remains grim for rich and poor nations alike. The World Trade Organization in July revised downward its forecast for global trade, now projecting a year-over-year contraction of 10 percent for 2009.

The World Bank's latest projections have the global economy contracting 2.9 percent this year and the U.S. economy shrinking by 3 percent. Developing economies, it said, will collectively grow by 1.2 percent, but would contract 1.6 percent if not for growth in China and India.

Around the globe, industrial production fell 28 percent from January to March. U.S. manufacturing plants in June were operating at about 64 percent of their capacity, the lowest point since records have been kept. Excess capacity is reflected across the major industrialized economies.

"Once excess capacity appears, the economy gets trapped in a vicious cycle, because it becomes hard for firms to find viable investment opportunities," said Justin Yifu Liu, the chief economist of the World Bank, said in a July 15 speech.

As demand declines, layoffs and bankruptcies increase and consumption falls further. The global downturn feeds on itself, and "excess capacity becomes even larger, and the financial sector problems deepen as toxic assets and non-performing loans grow," Liu said, adding that, "Unless we deal with the excess capacity situation, we will have a protracted crisis that will continue to wreak havoc on all countries."

CHINA

China, which grew by 7.1 percent in the first half of this year, remains the lone bright spot of global significance. For China and its 1.3 billion people, however, that's subpar growth, and it's sparking fears a rapid expansion in lending may bring the world's most populous country and the global economy new problems just over the horizon.

China's economy is getting a boost from a nearly $600 billion government stimulus package that's designed to offset lost earnings from foreign trade, as exports to many nations this year have fallen by 50 percent.

China seeks to boost domestic growth, partly by massively expanding bank lending. The nearly $1 trillion in loans granted by Chinese banks or guaranteed by the government in the first half of 2009 is more than 50 percent more than bank lending was for all of 2008.

"The fact that it took the government taking all the risk away from the banks means the quality of that lending is probably dubious.