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Housing Market Optimism a Stretch
Wednesday, August 19, 2009 6:54 AM


(Source: New Haven Register)trackingBy Cara Baruzzi, New Haven Register, Conn.

Aug. 19--A growing number of homeowners are becoming more optimistic that the values of their houses are increasing, but that sense of confidence may not be realistic, according to a survey released Tuesday.

In the second quarter of this year, most homeowners -- 60 percent -- acknowledged their home value had fallen in the past year, according to a quarterly survey released by Zillow.com, an online real estate service.

But in reality, 83 percent of U.S. homes declined in value over the past year leading up to the second quarter, up from 80 percent in the first quarter, according to Zillow's real estate market reports.

Though the housing market has been battered by the recession, homeowners seem relatively optimistic, and growing even more so, according to the Zillow survey, which was conducted July 7-9 online by Harris Interactive among a group of adults that included 1,600 homeowners.

Nineteen percent of homeowners thought their home values stayed the same in the past year, while only 4 percent of homes actually retained their values from a year ago. Meanwhile, 22 percent thought their home values managed to rise, when actually only 13 percent of houses had values increase.

Overall, for the second quarter, the "misperception gap" between perception and reality grew to a Home Value Misperception Index reading of 13, up from a reading of six on Zillow's barometer in the first quarter and 11 in the fourth quarter of 2008.

An index reading of zero means homeowners' perceptions are in line with actual values.

But Donald Klepper-Smith, chief economist at DataCore Partners in New Haven, said that despite some fluctuations from quarter to quarter, consumers overall have gotten more realistic about the housing market since the recession started taking its toll. "For many families, reality has set in," he said.

Albert Scafati, president of the Greater New Haven Association of Realtors, agreed. "Homeowners are making the adjustment that their property values have declined. However, I also get the sense that they are not totally discouraged as to the current economy," he said. "It appears that there is optimism in the real estate market."

Scafati, who is a broker at Press/Cuozzo Realtors in Hamden, said sellers combatting sinking house values should improve their property if they can, both to better compete with other homes on the market and to ready the house for an eventual market upturn.

Looking ahead, Zillow found that 34 percent of homeowners -- the largest percentage since Zillow began the survey in 2008's second quarter -- think their home value will increase, while 47 percent feel it will stay the same and 19 percent think it will drop.

Cara Baruzzi can be reached at cbaruzzi@nhregister.com or 789-5748

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Copyright (c) 2009, New Haven Register, Conn.

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