Aug. 19--Allegheny College economics professor Stephen Onyeiwu spent July searching for signs of growth in an industrial economy that's shed thousands of jobs.

But in a survey of more than 30 tool-and-die shops in Erie and Crawford counties, indications of a recovery were hard to find.

"The majority of them are still struggling," Onyeiwu said. "They have had to lay off workers and their markets are down. The recovery they are wishing for hasn't reached us yet."

The tooling industry is, of course, only one segment of a manufacturing economy that's lost 3,300 jobs in the past year in Erie County and another 700 in Crawford County.

But the view from the broader manufacturing community, which accounts for one in six jobs in Erie County, isn't altogether different. While some contend business is no longer getting worse, no one seems to be suggesting a robust recovery is under way.

At GE Transportation, where the local work force has tumbled over the past 18 months from 5,600 to about 4,000, there's no change to a bad situation.

The reality is that the North American rail industry has parked 5,700 locomotives, and no one is buying new ones.

"We have not received one single locomotive order from a North American rail customer in 2009," said Stephan Koller, spokesman for GE Transportation, based in Lawrence Park Township.

That slowdown raises concerns about the status of 1,200 GE workers who were furloughed in May because of a temporary lack of work.

Koller said the company is chasing orders around the world, but the prospects for an immediate turnaround don't seem good.

"I see reports saying we are turning the corner," he said. "But we are in a long-cycle business, and that does not ring true for our industry."

Outside Erie, there are subtle signs of an industrial economy on the mend.

U.S. industrial production jumped 0.5 percent in July -- the first monthly gain since December 2007, when the recession began.

Also, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general economic index that measures manufacturing conditions grew for the first time since April 2008.

Kurt Duska, owner of Engineered Plastics Inc. in Lake City, has seen little of that growth.

"We are level for the year, which I feel very blessed to be," he said. "I see nothing positive going on. We are in survival mode, and I think you see that at most companies."

Greg Yahn, owner of Advanced Finishing USA in Fairview Township, also counts himself among the fortunate.

"We have seen a nice little uptick," he said.