Aug. 20--The Grand Strand is still feeling the recession's effects, but the worst may be over, an area economist said Wednesday.

Key local economic indicators, including unemployment levels, home and retail sales, hotel occupancy and airplane deplanements, suggest the end may be in sight, a Coastal Carolina University research economist told local business leaders.

"I think ... we're starting to turn a corner right now in terms of how quickly we're losing jobs. What that means is from this point forward, we're still going to be losing jobs, but not at as rapid of a pace as we have," Don Schunk said. "We've dug a very deep hole in the last 12 months, and we're probably done digging, and that's the sense that we're at the bottom, but it's going to take a long time to crawl back out."

Unemployment will be around 13.8 percent in Horry County and 13.9 percent in Georgetown County from September to November, he told the Waccamaw Regional Council of Governments' Grand Strand Economic Outlook Board meeting.

The summer rates will likely finish up the end of August at around 11 percent for Horry County and 12 percent for Georgetown County, Schunk said.

"I think he's very much on target with his predictions," said Wayne Gregory, director of economic development for Georgetown County. "It's very important that we do all we can to bring in manufacturing jobs and have the steel mill reopen. It cannot happen soon enough. That'd be great for not only employees of the steel mill, but also their suppliers, which in turn, impacts retail figures."

In July, the ArcelorMittal steel mill in Georgetown shut down, leaving 245 people unemployed.

Mary Nell Smith, director of the Coastal Workforce Center, said the 2 point increase from summer to fall is typical for the Myrtle Beach area, especially with the reduction in seasonal employment.

"I'm not surprised at his numbers," Smith said. "I believe it'll be like that."

Retail sales are likely to fall 5.1 percent below last year in Horry County and 6 percent lower in Georgetown County, Schunk said.

"People in regular storefront gift shops and those type things have had discounts going all summer long just to get people to walk out of the door with some bags of goods," said Annette Fisher, president of the Georgetown County Chamber of Commerce.

It's the same story with hotel occupancy and real estate, officials said.

Hotel occupancy will likely average around 44.8 percent from September to November, a 3 percent increase from 2008, Schunk said.