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Weigh Risks of Being Overly Conservative With Investments
Monday, August 24, 2009 1:51 PM


(Source: Chicago Tribune)trackingQuestion: I am a conservative investor and have $100,000 that I will not need for at least 10 years. It is invested in a CD earning 2.1 percent. Is this the right approach, or should I consider corporate bonds?

Answer: "The question is: Are you a really a conservative investor, and should you be?" said Newport Beach, Calif., financial planner Laura Tarbox.

After serious losses in the stock market the last couple of years, Tarbox said, "everyone thinks they are more conservative than they were before, but they have to think about the risks of being overly conservative." If "conservative" means you emotionally can't stand the chance of losing any money, stay invested in CDs and U.S. Treasury bonds. But, though the 2.1 percent on your CD won't do much to help build your nest egg, you have to accept it if you must be 100 percent safe.

Virtually, any other investment _ including corporate bonds _ are not completely safe.

If you had said you needed your money within five years, I would have said to stick with CDs or individual U.S. Treasury bonds. There's a rule of thumb that you don't take chances with money you will need within five years, ruling out stocks and corporate bonds for short-term investors.

But with 10 years, you can take a few more risks. And when you contemplate risks, think about all of them. Many people do not think about the risks they take when they insist on ultrasafe investments. Let's say the $100,000 is all you have saved for retirement, and you will have to start living on it when you retire in 10 years.

If your $100,000 stays in a CD earning 2.1 percent, you will have about $120,600. The sum will be less after paying taxes on the interest each year, but let's assume that you keep all the money and that the rate has held at 2.1 percent.

Another rule of thumb holds that you should not remove more than 4 percent of your savings in the first year of retirement to avoid running out of money down the road. That rule also assumes that each year you increase the amount you take out just a little to cover inflation. So, your 4 percent withdrawal from your $120,600 would be $4,822 that first year. If you would have $20,000 in Social Security, you would have $24,822 to live on.

But let's say you will need about $26,200 a year. Then, if you could take on a little more risk _ maybe combining CDs, Treasuries, corporate bonds rated A or above and a stock market index mutual fund _ and average 5 percent on that diversified portfolio, your $100,000 could grow to about $155,132, with $6,205 withdrawn the first year. Add Social Security, and you'd have your $26,200.

Of course, there are no guarantees. A 5 percent return is not certain.




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