Aug. 29--Here's some good news for Red Hat: The Linux software market is expected to continue to enjoy robust growth over the next several years.

Linux subscription revenue is expected to grow 16.9 percent annually through 2013, according to a new study issued this week by market research firm IDC. The worldwide market, which totaled $567 million last year, is expected to cross the $1billion threshold in 2012 and hit $1.2 billion in 2013.

Raleigh-based Red Hat is the No. 1 supplier of subscriptions for Linux software, an open-source operating system that competes with Microsoft's Windows and Unix software.

Red Hat is also one of the Triangle's most successful tech companies and a rare example of a corporation that has continued to thrive despite the recession.

Revenue rose 11 percent to $174.4million in the quarter that ended May 31 -- an increase that outpaced Wall Street's expectations.

Red Hat accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total Linux subscription revenue last year -- 64.7 percent -- said IDC vice president Al Gillen.

That's more than twice the 29.8 percent share of its nearest rival, Novell.

The Linux subscription market has more than doubled since 2005, Gillen said.

Future revenue growth will come primarily from customers switching from Unix, which is fading, and transitioning from free versions of Linux to subscription versions that offer technical support and upgrades, Gillen said.

But growth won't come from Red Hat stealing customers from rivals such as Microsoft.

"We don't see a whole lot of opportunity for conversions from Windows to Linux," he said. "To be sure, you will always find instances of customers moving in that direction. ... However, we don't believe there is a whole lot of net shift from Windows to Linux."

The IDC study isn't entirely upbeat, however. The number of subscriptions for Linux software that runs servers is supposed to decrease slightly this year before recovering next year. Blame virtualization, which enables companies to make more efficient use of servers, and the use of free Linux server software, according to the study.

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