Aug. 30--The forecast from Washington that an economic recovery is sprouting doesn't square with what Sarah Robillard sees when she walks her four-month-old daughter in Pawtucket.

"All I see is more store closings, more people getting laid off," she says.

Robillard, 19, has been out of work for a year. Her husband, Christopher, has worked only sporadically in the last 12 months.

The couple is among 72,200 Rhode Islanders, or 12.7 percent of the work force, that the U.S. government counted in July as unemployed. The figure is up 2,300 from June and 27,800 from a year ago.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve and White House experts say they see signs that the recession is ending.

So who's right? Why are the views from Washington so much different from those of the people back home?

One answer is the unevenness of the U.S. economy.

Older industrial areas, such as Rhode Island, that built economies on manufacturing and construction will take much longer to recover than other areas with stronger economies built on new technologies and knowledge-based industries.

New data show the disparities:

Twenty-six states reported jobless rate increases in July while 17 reported decreases. Seven were stable.

There were 14 states that reported July unemployment rates above 10 percent. Michigan was number one (15 percent) and Rhode Island (12.7 percent) was number two, followed by Nevada (12.5 percent) and California (11.9 percent.)

But there also were 13 states with jobless rates below or at 7 percent, including New Hampshire, at 6.8 percent.

I know the jobless rate is a lagging indicator that follows a recovery. I understand that the rate also tends to spike at the end of a recession because more people feel hopeful and start looking again for work. The government doesn't count people as unemployed if they say they aren't looking for work. So once they report that they are searching for a job, they get counted among the jobless.

Still, the wide gap among the jobless rates around the country means some states will find their way out of the recession much earlier than others. Rhode Island will lag the region and the country.

That means some people will be left behind.

In mid-August, there were 34,750 people collecting some type of unemployment benefit. Many of their benefits will run out long before they land a job that gives them a paycheck.

That's why it's important that Congress, when it returns to work right after Labor Day, approves an extension of jobless benefits.

A bill in the Senate, co-sponsored by U.S. Sen.