Sep. 6--When economic experts try to figure out when South Carolina's economy will improve, they use terms such as gross domestic product, consumer confidence and manufacturing output.

But the average guy on the street just wants to know two things:

--When will I finally get another raise?

--And when will my buddy who's been laid off find another job?

There is no short answer for either question, but there is hope that both could happen next year.

Economists are optimistic that the state has hit bottom and is beginning its recovery. Meanwhile, the Midlands' largest employers are taking a cautious approach as they plan their 2010 budgets.

JOB GROWTH

This recession, which started in 2007, has made its biggest mark in South Carolina on the jobs front with the greatest losses seen in construction and manufacturing. The state's unemployment rate has ranked among the highest in the country. In July, it was 11.8 percent.

It has been losing jobs for almost two years, and economists say it will take at least that long before the state returns to its pre-recession employment levels.

"The deeper you are in the hole, the harder it is to get yourself over the edge so you can say, 'Whew, we are finally climbing out of this recession,'" said Bruce Yandle, economics professor emeritus at Clemson University.

Already, some sectors are seeing improvement, including among engineers, in information technology and finance, said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte. But other areas, including manufacturing, will have a slower recovery.

"It will be six to nine months before we see a glimmer of hope in some of these areas," Silvia said.

But it will take even longer --up to three years -- for South Carolina to rebound to its pre-recession employment levels, several economists said.

Some even predicted it would take three years to have positive job growth.

The job losses in manufacturing and construction have rippled through the state's economy.

For example, if a manufacturing plant closes and lays off 200 employees who once used the company's BlueCross BlueShield of South Carolina insurance benefits, then the insurance company suffers, too. In turn, BlueCross BlueShield might have to hold open positions to make up for the lost revenue.

"Shrinking membership is now affecting us," said Barbara Kelly, vice president of human resources at BlueCross BlueShield of South Carolina, the Midlands' second-largest private employer with nearly 6,750 workers.