Sep. 13--The Federal Reserve Board last week kindled hope that the nation's longest recession since World War II is nearing an end.

The central bank's survey of current economic conditions showed that among the Fed's 12 districts, economic activity has firmed up in one, improved in five and stabilized or showed signs of stabilizing in another five.

Global Insight economist Brian Bethune said the Fed report "is picking up this palpable improvement in the tone of the economy."

"[It] is consistent with our September outlook, which forecasts a conclusive end to the production and residential housing recessions in the third quarter of 2009," Mr. Bethune wrote.

With unemployment at 9.7 percent, there is a considerable army of the financially debilitated who find all this conjecture that the recession is throwing in the towel a tad premature. Most economists believe that unemployment will top 10 percent before subsiding. A streak of four quarters of negative economic growth isn't expected to end until results for the third quarter are posted later this year.

If your checkbook, 401(k) statements and credit card bills are telling you the recession still has legs, you are not alone.

The recognized expert in determining when recessions begin and end -- the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER -- more than likely won't make the call for months. In other words, the average American will know it well before the judgment becomes official.

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research group that is top-heavy with Nobel economists and former chairmen of the President's Council of Economic Advisers. NBER's scorekeepers define a recession as "a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." In addition to the gross domestic product, NBER's referees consider income, employment, industrial production and wholesale as well as retail sales.

"There is no big debate about whether these are the right people to do it," said Bank of New York Mellon Chief Economist Richard B. Hoey. "The general consensus in the economic community is that they are the official arbiters."

NBER's interest in recessions is purely intellectual. By defining when they begin and end, the research group provides a standard time frame for those who study past recessions for the purpose of being better equipped to combat future downturns.

The bureau's economists are a conservative lot. They do not make forecasts, which makes them wrong far less often than their prognosticating brethren.