Sep. 16--At long last, investors have received the soothing news they have been wanting to hear: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that the recession has probably ended.

"From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point," Bernanke was quoted as telling an audience at the Brookings Institution, although he quickly warned, "It's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time because many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was."

Declaring the recession over may seem like the green light to finally buy stocks with peace of mind. But for investors who have been sitting back waiting for that comfort, they'll find that many fund managers have beaten them to the bargain rack. Picking stocks now is not an easy task.

The stock market, after a 55 percent rally in the Standard & Poor's 500 index, has been described by some analysts as being on a sugar high.

Meanwhile, economists expect unemployment to remain high, and borrowing money is likely to remain difficult for small businesses and individuals. As a result, many analysts say investors could endure another rough period, perhaps a double-dip recession and another downturn in stocks.

Few expect a return to March's lows. But TCW Group chief investment officer Jeffrey Gundlach does. He said investors have yet to digest the fact that the nation is in a deflationary period that will make it difficult for companies to grow profits or hire back workers. The evidence: The "cash for clunkers" program shows that people will buy only when prices are slashed.

Gundlach makes a point that is being voiced by other analysts: Stocks are riskier now than they were a few months ago because prices have risen sharply even though the economy's course is uncertain.

The weakest stocks have had the strongest moves, which is not unusual for periods when there has been a sharp sell-off, said Ed Clissold, senior global analyst at Ned Davis Research. Small and financially weak companies have climbed about twice as much as seemingly solid blue chips.

Emerging markets also have soared. Clissold said that makes sense because they sold off hard and then recovered before the U.S. He said their recent leadership in the market is evidence of a continuing trend, although a near-term decline is possible.

Some fund managers said the focus on emerging markets and small, risky stocks means investors can find good buys among the strongest of companies, such as Wal-Mart, McDonald's, Intel and Bristol-Myers Squibb.