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Small Business Optimism Grows, but Entrepreneurs Say Worst of Economic Woes Not Over Yet, According to the American Express® OPEN Small Business Monitor
Thursday, September 17, 2009 12:54 PM


(Source: Business Wire)trackingMore than half (55%) of entrepreneurs have an optimistic outlook on near-term business prospects, up from 45% in March 2009, according to the American Express OPEN® Small Business Monitor, a semi-annual survey of business owners. One quarter (26%) report expanding opportunities for their business, up from 15% from a year ago, but six in ten (63%) do not think the worst of the U.S. economic woes are over, and nearly one in six (17%) say they risk going out of business in the next six months because of the economy.

"There appears to be a dichotomy where many small businesses are seeing signs of improvement while other firms are still struggling to make payroll," said Susan Sobbott, president American Express OPEN. "For the first time since 2007, the majority of small businesses are optimistic about the near-term future, in part because of less competition, however some of the less healthy firms are dipping into cash reserves and personal assets to stem the tide of declining sales."

Among those businesses reporting growth opportunities for their firms, 44% say these opportunities come as a result of less competition. The ability to renegotiate equipment leases and supply contracts (13%) and lower real estate costs (12%) also contributed to these firms' growth mindset. Overall, when asked for the primary way they address cash flow issues, 32% of business owners said they use personal or private funds, up 9 percentage points from March. More than a third (35%) say the recession has caused them to tap personal assets, on-par with the March reading (37%).

Although small business optimism is on the upswing after hitting its all-time low a year ago, the American Express OPEN Small Business Monitor shows that business are not shifting to hiring mode. This fall, just under one quarter have plans to hire (23% vs. 28% this spring), which is the lowest reading in the history of the Monitor (falling below the fall 2002 recession level of 26%), and plans for capital investments equal the record setting low from Spring 2009 (42%).

With hiring and capital investment plans on hold for most, business owners are taking a conservative, back-to-basics approach to managing their firms:

Concentrating on current customers. Forty-one percent of small business owners say their top priority over the next six months is maintaining current sources of revenue. By comparison, only one quarter (26%) say they are focused on growing their business, which is the lowest number for growth in Monitor history.

Avoiding risk. Half (49%) say they are not willing to take on financial risk to grow their business, an all-time high for the Monitor.

Keeping employees happy. In general, deteriorating employee morale has plateaued. Only twelve percent say employee morale has worsened over the last six months (down from 25% for the preceding six-month period.) Three-quarters say morale has stayed the same, and nine percent say it has improved. In addition, approximately one in three (28%) business owners see offering financial incentives such as bonuses and paid time off as a way to increase employee morale, and twenty-three percent see more regular communication about the business as the key to improving morale.

In addition, business owners continue to do everything they can to protect their employees. For example, thirty-five percent of small business owners have tapped personal assets as a result of the recession, twenty-seven percent have stopped taking a salary and seventeen percent are working a second job, comparable to six months ago. At the same time, fewer business owners are laying people off (15%, down from 23% in the spring) or cutting benefits (8%, versus 16% this spring).

Even as hiring plans are not in the cards for most business owners, the nearly one quarter planning to hire are upbeat. These business owners are more willing to think the economy creates new opportunities for their business (36% vs. 31% overall) and seek out alternative tactics to manage their business. In addition, more than three quarters (78%, compared to 65% overall) of those hiring will use online marketing techniques to boost business and nearly half (46%, vs.



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