(Source: The Manilla Times)

By Maricel E. Burgonio, The Manila Times, Philippines
Sep. 23--The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported Tuesday that the
financial systems remain impaired, despite recent reports that the world was
slowly recovering from the global economic turmoil.
"Global economic activity is starting to pick up, but financial systems
remain impaired and domestic and external imbalances persist in many
economies," the IMF said in a statement. The IMF added the global economic
recovery was expected to be slow as financial institutions and markets
worldwide struggle to cope with unemployment levels rising to new highs.
"[Also] an impaired financial system needs time to heal before it can
intermediate financial capital effectively."
The term intermediate means allowing those need money to access funds of
those with excess funds.
The IMF also said the timing of the withdrawal of monetary and fiscal
stimulus or the implementation of exit strategy should be considered to
support economic recovery.
"On the one hand, a premature exit could stifle the recovery. On the
other hand, delaying the withdrawal of stimulus could be inflationary. At the
same time, the dramatic increase in fiscal deficits and government debt levels
exacerbates sustainability concerns for a number of economies," the
institution explained.
Central banks have decreased their interest rates to spur economic growth
as part of the monetary stimulus. Most of the governments in the region posted
higher budget deficit because of higher spending particularly in the
infrastructure sector.
Also because of low interest rate environment, the borrowing cost went
down, which led to higher levels of debt.
IMF said the high demand for credit was expected to continue and may
result in an asset bubble. "By accommodating loosening credit conditions and
rising debt, monetary policymakers increased the risks of a bust. The evidence
suggests that policymakers should react more strongly to signs of increasing
macrofinancial risk."
Since there are now initial signs of economic recovery and greater
stabilization of financial markets, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
believes that there was a need to start thinking of exit strategy. But the
central bank has to first to determine if there are clear and stronger signs
of private-sector activity, like growing consumption levels or investments.
Central bank Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo earlier said that the
critical issue in an exit strategy was the timing. Exiting too early could set
back the so-called green shoots, but acting too late could fan demand
pressures and generate higher inflation, he explained.