Sep. 26--The Triad's unemployment rate declined by the largest margin in six months during August, but still remained near a historic high.

Economists and employment officials cautioned yesterday that the rate decline likely came more from people dropping out of the work force than from significant job creation.

The N.C. Employment Security Commission reported that the Triad's jobless rate was 11.3 percent compared with 11.6 percent in July.

The jobless rate for the Winston-Salem metropolitan statistical area slipped to 10 percent from a revised 10.2 percent in July.

Forsyth County's rate decreased to 9.8 percent from 10 percent.

"Although I am somewhat encouraged by the unemployment rate decrease, I have not seen firm evidence that we can consider this a long-lasting trend or that the recovery is fully ensconced," said Archie Hicks, the manager of the commission's Winston-Salem office.

"There may be several factors at work to cause the decrease statewide, including people exhausting benefits and leaving the work force."

The commission eventually stops accounting in the jobless rate for people who are not actively pursuing work.

On Sept. 15, the commission projected that 2,446 residents in the Triad and Northwest North Carolina, including 440 in Forsyth, would exhaust their unemployment benefits by mid-November.

An additional 3,434 will exhaust their benefits by mid-January, along with 14,510 by mid-March and 85,457 by September 2010.

The U.S. House has agreed to extend federal jobless benefits for an additional 13 weeks. The U.S. Senate is being urged by state labor commissioners to approve the extension.

However, the potential extended benefits are not likely to help people who exhaust their benefits in the short term, said Larry Parker, a spokesman for the commission.

"Unfortunately, they will be out of benefits," Parker said. "And since we don't know the guidelines that will be sent down by the U.S. Labor Department, if it passes, we're not sure if they will be retroactive."

The jobless rate decreased in 12 of the 14 counties in the Triad and Northwest N.C., led by a 0.8 percentage point drop in Yadkin County to 9.6 percent.

"Rates have decreased in many of these counties for various reasons," said Moses Carey Jr., the chairman of the commission. "Most counties experienced some loss in the work force.

"People moving away and looking for work in other areas, students returning to school and some people exhausting their benefits are reasons for such declines," Carey said.

The Winston-Salem MSA -- which consists of Davie, Forsyth, Stokes and Yadkin counties -- had a net gain of 2,900 jobs during August, including 2,800 in government.

Most teachers are counted as unemployed by the commission when their annual contracts expire in May and June.

"Unemployment is expected to remain high for the remainder of the year, and even into next year," said Todd Cherry, an economics professor at Appalachian State University. "Even with some increases in economic activity, it will take some time for businesses to move on new hiring."

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