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Dow Nears Mile Marker: El Pasoans Debate Whether Rise Would Mark Return to Bull Market
Sunday, October 04, 2009 10:05 PM


(Source: El Paso Times)trackingBy Vic Kolenc, El Paso Times, Texas

Oct. 4--EL PASO -- The Dow Jones industrial average is flirting with the 10,000-point level -- territory not seen in a year as the stock market made a steady dive after the nation's financial meltdown last October.

The Dow, a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks, closed Friday at 9,487 -- down from last week's high of 9,712, which was just short of September's peak of 9,791. The Dow sank to a 12-year low of 6,547 on March 9.

Some see the Dow's movement toward 10,000 as a sure sign a bull market has taken hold. But many El Paso investors and investment advisers remain leery that the market has made a full reversal from its huge collapse.

East Side resident Ruben Villalva, who lost much of his and his wife, Claudia's, retirement nest egg during the stock market's dramatic fall, said the Dow doesn't mean much to him these days. The couple have pulled out of their mutual fund investments and stashed cash in certificates of deposit.

"This has shaken my confidence in the market," Villalva said. "We've decided to step back and take a deep breath. I'm 42; we still have a chance to make up (the losses) and get back in the game."

They'll huddle with a financial adviser in January and look at their options, he said.

Steve Seely, 71, a retired East Side resident who has been investing in the stock market for more than 40 years, also took a big hit in the market's dive, along with his wife, Bertha. But Seely is bullish on the market.

"We started plowing

money back in the stock market in early December," Seely said. "We were down about $500,000 in March, and now we're down to less than $100,000 (loss). I'm investing largely in blue-chip stocks with dividends.

"I don't think the stock market will skyrocket, but when it zigs and zags, it will go up gradually," Seely said. However, "October could be a volatile month" because mutual funds' tax year ends in October, and the funds do a lot of buying and selling, he noted.

Ron White, an investment adviser at Raymond James Financial Services in El Paso, said he wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow hit 10,000 soon. But the market also is likely to have another downward correction before the year ends, he said.

"Ten thousand is more psychological than anything else, but psychology is a big part of the market," White said. "We'll probably see some people move money into the market" when the Dow hits 10,000.

But White is concerned that the market's rise may be artificial. The rise has come with "lighter volume," which means institutions haven't moved a lot of money into the market, he said.




(1)
 
10/5/2009 10:18:07 AM
investor by paula
Good article.  Who knows what to do.  Just make sure you protect enough.
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