Oct. 6--Keeping warm will require less money this winter for natural-gas and heating-oil customers, according to forecasts issued yesterday.

Costs are projected to go up, however, for those who rely on electricity, especially if a Duke Energy rate increase is approved by the N.C. Utilities Commission.

Piedmont Natural Gas said it projects up to a 20 percent decrease in residential customers' monthly bills this winter, or a range of $15 to $25, compared with last year. Meanwhile, local heating-oil prices may fall as much as 38 percent from last year -- or $3.69 a gallon to about $2.29 a gallon -- primarily because of a supply glut.

Still, compared with five years ago, heating-oil prices are up 27 percent from $1.80 a gallon.

David Trusty, a spokesman for Piedmont Natural Gas, said the downward price projection is "a function of higher supply that has built up through the spring and summer, and customer demand tailing off, whether industrial, commercial or residential."

He said that the utility has been affected by the slowdown in commercial and residential construction, which has tilted toward natural gas as an energy option in recent years.

"There's an expectation of normal winter temperatures based on a 30-year average," Trusty said.

Despite the sharp decline in heating-oil prices, GandB Oil Co. Inc. has not experienced an uptick in customers requesting a fill-up in recent weeks. The company has about 20,000 customers, primarily west of the Forsyth-Guilford county line.

"We're seeing more requests for smaller deliveries than fill-ups," said Anthony Sebastian, the marketing manager of GandB. He said that the price GandB charges for a gallon of heating oil is $2.39 compared with $3.69 this time last year.

Bain Oil Co. has dropped its price 14 cents a gallon in the past month to $2.29 a gallon. 'The cost may go up a little from here, but it also may go down a little," said Frank Danley, the manager of Bain's office in Winston-Salem.

According to the U.S. Energy Department, the cost of heating oil locally is below the national average of $2.51 a gallon. The agency's forecast is for the price to rise next year to an average of $2.78 a gallon.

Meanwhile, the cost of electricity around the nation is expected to rise from 11.36 cents for each kilowatt hour in 2008 to 11.64 cents in 2009, then dip to 11.40 cents in 2010.

Duke Energy will go before the N.C. Utilities Commission on Oct. 19 to present its case for an overall 12.6 percent rate increase, including a 13.5 percent increase -- about $11 a month -- for homeowners. The last time that Duke was approved for a rate increase was 1991.

According to the Associated Press, at least 10 individuals and local governments have filed written protests of the proposal, which will affect 1.8 million customers in North Carolina. Most say that the depth of a severe recession is the worst time for Duke to raise rates.

rcraver@wsjournal.com 727-7376

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