Oct. 8--Pharmaceutical sales are expected to pick up slightly next year despite the torpid economy and accelerating competition from generic drugs, a prominent industry research firm said yesterday.

IMS Health said it expected global pharmaceutical sales to hit $825 billion in 2010, a 4 percent to 6 percent yearly increase. The company also raised its projections for the next five years, estimating that worldwide drug-company revenue would grow at a compound annual rate of 4 percent to 7 percent through 2013.

An improving outlook in the U.S. market helped boost the firm's forecast. Pharmacies are stocking more products this year because the fear that economic turmoil would cause some patients to stop taking their medicines didn't prove true, said Murray Aitken, senior vice president of health-care insight at IMS.

Programs that help consumers get free prescriptions or subsidize co-payments may have been a factor, Aitken said.

Despite generic competition, companies that make brand-name drugs have not dropped their prices, another trend that caused IMS to raise its estimates.

"We thought there would be a slowdown in pricing increases, but pharmaceutical manufacturers have maintained pricing," he said.

IMS data do not take into account discounts, however, which may make the picture look brighter than it is. Makers of some brand-name drugs have tried to hold on to market share by claiming that their products work better than generics.

Over the long run, though, generic competition remains a huge threat. Since 2004, the number of prescriptions dispensed for generic drugs has increased from 56 percent to 75 percent of the total.

Generics are expected to make deeper inroads in the next five years, when products that generate $137 billion in sales, including Lipitor and Plavix, lose patent protection.

Contact staff writer Miriam Hill at 215-854-5520 or hillmb@phillynews.com.

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