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Retail Sales Rise; Analysts Cautious
Friday, October 09, 2009 10:55 AM


(Source: New Haven Register)trackingBy Angela Carter, New Haven Register, Conn.

Oct. 9--An index released Thursday that gauges retailers' sales compared with a year ago posted its best showing in more than a year.

The Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index posted a 0.6 percent increase in September, beating expectations of a 1.1 percent loss.

But the rise, which beat expectations and delivered the best reading since July 2008, does not yet signal an upward trend, an analyst warns.

Negative results last year made for easier year-over-year comparisons, cautioned Jharonne Martis, the analyst who compiles the index.

Same-store sales are reviewed at locations open at least a year and are a barometer of retailers' health.

"The increase should not be read as 'a return of the consumer,' but rather viewed in the context that retailers benefited last month from easier comparisons, a later start to the back-to-school season and a later Labor Day holiday," she said.

Out of 30 retailers tracked by the index, 78 percent beat expectations, 4 percent met them, while 19 percent missed.

"September 2009 results are critical because they marked the beginning of easier year-overyear comparisons and retailers are taking advantage of this by learning from their past mistakes," Martis said.

"Retailers have been trying to avoid last year's inventory disaster, as consumers remain frugal during the economic slowdown," Martis said.

Consumers are seeking value, to the point that they now refuse to pay full price, she said.

Heading into the holiday shopping season, retailers will need to keep leaner inventories and the key economic indicator that will influence shoppers' behavior is the unemployment number.

Among the retail sectors reporting, the apparel sector posted 1.9 percent growth, while the discount sector fell by 0.3 percent and the department store sector finished the month with a 1.4 percent drop.

Martis said that overall, the best and worst performers were among teen retailers. Aeropostale beat its final estimate of 12.4 percent and registered the strongest year-over-year comparison at 19 percent.

Yet, American Eagle and Abercrombie & Fitch registered weaker results of zero percent and an 18 percent loss, respectively.

"Abercrombie & Fitch has now posted 17 consecutive months of negative same-store sales," Martis said.

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