Oct. 9--With a 13-billion bushel corn crop about to be harvested, export markets surprisingly strong, an ethanol industry ramping up and a potential E15 nationwide mandate to be acted upon by Congress, will there be enough corn?

About 4.2 billion bushels of the 2009 corn crop will be utilized for ethanol production. That will yield 11.76 billion gallons of ethanol and more than 32 million metric tons of distillers grain. Last year, the U.S. ethanol industry produced 9 billion gallons of ethanol, accounting for 7 percent of the nation's gasoline sales. The United States still imports about 70 percent of its oil at a cost of about $475 billion a year.

Steve Taff, University of Minnesota Extension economist, said, "agriculture will always be a relatively minor energy provider simply because the need for energy in America is so huge. Even if we could convert every acre of corn to ethanol production, we'd be no more than 10 percent of the nation's energy appetite."

He indicated that agriculture would always be what economists call "a price taker," meaning agriculture will likely never be able to call the shots in energy production.

So is nuclear energy inevitable?

"It's inevitable that we've got to reopen that debate. The Minnesota Legislature this last session decided not to reopen a discussion on the current moratorium on new nuclear energy facilities. But it's just a matter of time. It's technology with a proven record of safety and cleanliness," he said.

With growing demands from agriculture as an energy provider but with a worldwide recession still in place, will farmland prices stabilize? Or decline? Or increase?

"Danged if I know," he said. "Recent price figures don't show any decided downturn although we do see thinner markets currently. 1031s are a good way to stash cash but no one has an abundance of cash these days. We never really did have large numbers of 1031s in the farm market but they are so visible they got lots of notice, and notoriety."

His matter-of-fact analysis is that the economy continues in the tank, many people are out of work, and there aren't real solid indicators as to when this economy will rebound. "I'm not in the business of making predictions but we desperately need a turn-around, and the sooner the better."

He's cautious about the development of a cellulosic biomass industry because, as he puts it, "nobody is willing to pay you enough not to grow corn.