Oct. 9--The nation's chain stores saw their first sales gain in 14 months in September: less than 1 percent but a sign of life from shoppers that industry observers said could fuel hopes for the holiday season.

However, spending may take longer to rebound in places like Inland Southern California, where unemployment and foreclosure issues weigh heavier on consumers' budgets and mindsets than in most parts of the country.

"We're still not seeing much evidence that the consumers are willing to open up their wallets and start spending again," said Brent Schoenbaum, a retail practice partner in the Los Angeles business consulting firm Deloitte.

Two prominent monthly indexes, based on surveys and sales figures gathered from national retailers, showed slight rises in September sales compared with a year ago, beating experts' expectations. Thomson Reuters put the increase at 0.6 percent compared with September 2008, while the International Council of Shopping Centers/Goldman Sachs survey reported a 0.1 percent rise.

Before the release of Thursday's numbers, researchers at several organizations, including the National Retail Federation, Deloitte and Nielsen, all predicted flat or slightly lower U.S. sales for the 2009 holidays compared with 2008.

Amid an unfolding collapse of national financial institutions, sales a year ago were declining, not rising, heading into the peak holiday shopping season.

Chapman University economist Esmael Adibi said there have been signs during the past few months that the national recession is ending and consumer confidence is rising, though Californians generally remain pessimistic about economic conditions.

A year ago, economist said, places like the Inland region were bearing the brunt of a nationwide downturn. That began around mid-2007, long before last fall's near meltdown of the financial markets.

Adibi said many Inland residents who survived the past year's layoffs and home foreclosures will likely be in the mood to spend for the holidays, though that spending will be very price-conscious. Even if national sales during this year's holiday season rise only 1 percent, that would be far better than last year's annual decline of 3.5 percent, he said.

Still, Southland shoppers could slam the pocketbooks shut as soon as the Christmas season ends. "We're not going back to where things were in '04, '05 or '06," Adibi said, referring to spending sprees during the region's pre-recession housing boom.

Schoenbaum said retailers generally had a lackluster back-to-school sales season, which is usually a harbinger of holiday spending.