Oct. 12--Amid the economic gloom of 2009, one bright spot has been the rally in the stock market since it hit bottom in March.

Through September, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 17 percent for the year, while the Dow Jones industrial average had risen almost 11 percent. That has allowed investors to regain some of their market losses, although many have remained too nervous to get back into the stock market. Their money remains in bonds and low-yielding money market funds and bank certificates of deposit.

With the final quarter of the year under way, investment professionals think the rally still has some life. But there's not a great amount of clarity or confidence about how long it will last or how strong it will be for the rest of the year.

At some point, investors are going to want to see revenue growth for companies, instead of mainly cost cutting, they said. Right now, however, the market still appears to have some momentum.

Bruce Bittles, chief market strategist for Milwaukee's Robert W. Baird & Co., believes the market will climb in the fourth quarter, but at a slower pace than in previous months.

"I think the market is going to be vulnerable" to another decline, Bittles said. "My guess is it's going to be the first quarter of next year because I'm concerned that the economy is not going to be able to pull out of this any time soon. I think it's going to be a very slow, erratic, difficult recovery."

Consumers, who in recent years accounted for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, fundamentally have changed their habits, he said. Instead of borrowing and spending, they are saving money.

"Now, in the long term, that's a very bullish thing for the markets and very bullish for the economy," Bittles said. "But I think in the short and intermediate term, it means the economy is going to grow at a very slow pace."

John Collopy, director of research for Brigg-Ficks Securities LLC in Milwaukee, said the market rally seems to be driven by the money the government has poured into the economy. He said the fundamentals, such as company earnings, don't appear to justify the gains.

"The market is a discounting mechanism and it could be telling us that there is a hell of a recovery over the next hill," Collopy said. "I don't know if that is the case or not, but all you can ascribe it to is the liquidity that's being created by the Fed through various mechanisms."

With the weak dollar and a solidifying of commodity prices, two Wisconsin-based companies that stand to benefit are Milwaukee's Bucyrus International Inc. and Joy Global Inc., both of which make mining equipment, Collopy said.

Joy Global and Bucyrus were among the top five winners in the latest Wisconsin Ticker analysis.

A $1,000 investment in Joy Global at the beginning of September would have been worth $1,265.94 at the end of the month, according to Bloomberg News. A $1,000 investment in Bucyrus during the same period would have been worth $1,192.96.

Ladish Co., of Cudahy, which makes forged metal components, also could be among Wisconsin-based publicly traded companies to see gains in this market and economy, said Bob Landaas, president of Milwaukee's Landaas & Co.

Landaas said he is "guardedly optimistic" about the stock market right now. There are tangible signs a recovery has begun, and it will be easier for companies to show quarterly earnings growth because those of the past year have been so weak, he said. A danger, though, is the economy slipping back into recession.

"I think the market will do well, assuming we don't double dip," Landaas said.

Landaas also said a lot of investor money remains on the sidelines.

Given the small returns available on money market funds and bank CDs, and with bond yields down a bit, he said more people will take another look at stocks.

"People get antsy, they get restless, and that money ultimately finds its way into the stock market," Landaas said.

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