Oct. 13--The Dow Jones industrial average seems poised to return to the 10,000 level this week, but analysts are wondering what larger impact that modest milestone might have.

The widely watched index closed up 20.86 points Monday to close at 9,885.80 in light holiday trading. That was a high for 2009 and a continuation of the considerable improvement made since its recent low of 6,547.05 on March 9.

Still, the last time the Dow closed above 10,000 was Oct. 3 of last year. And, the select blue chips remain down about 30 percent from their all-time high of 14,164.53 on Oct. 9, 2007.

"I'd be shocked if we don't reach 10,000 in the next few days," said Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa. "It probably won't mean as much as the first time the Dow crossed that mark, but psychologically it will be good for stock investors.

"It should put some stability back in the market and give people renewed confidence in equities."

Dollarhide is among the professionals who are highly optimistic about Wall Street's prospects. The Tulsa money manager said the market could begin a one- to two-year bull run next year.

"The Dow could be up 20 percent in 2010," he predicted in a telephone interview. "Overall, I'd say there's a much higher probability of the index going back to 14,000 in the next few years than it returning to 6,500."

Dollarhide said there are a number of factors driving the market's resurgence, including growing signs of worldwide recovery, an increase in credit available, government stimulus spending and low interest rates.

Another Tulsa financial planner, James "Skip" Nichols, said he also believes the Dow returning to 10,000 would be a "big deal," but is cautious about the future.

Nichols, who owns Financial Planning Resources Inc., said he recently returned from an investment conference in Chicago where industry speakers disagreed somewhat on the outlook for the equities markets. Some were very bullish, while others were not sure stocks will rebound as high or as quickly, he said.

Analysts from one mutual fund firm said the "new normal" for the market could be slower growth and lower corporate profits for the foreseeable future, Nichols recalled.

The money manager said there is a feeling in part of the industry that it could take a considerable amount of time for investors to embrace equities again.

"The market drops that followed the bursting of the tech bubble and the attack on the World Trade Center almost could be seen by investors as anomalies," Nichols said in a telephone interview. "The Federal Reserve handled those incidents well, and confidence remained.