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Worries persist despite some retail sales strength
Wednesday, October 14, 2009 5:55 PM


(Source: Associated Press/AP Online)trackingBy MARTIN CRUTSINGER

WASHINGTON - Retail sales outside of autos showed surprising strength in September, but economists worry the rebound in all-important consumer spending will be short-lived as American families contend with rising unemployment and tight credit.

Removing autos, sales rose a better-than-expected 0.5 percent, led by gains at furniture stores, general merchandise stores and specialty clothing stores.

Many economists saw that as a sign that Americans are starting to spend again, a critical development for any recovery since consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity.

"American consumers look like they are making their way back. They are cautious but they are no longer panicked," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "They are not spending with abandon, but they are spending enough to ensure that the nation's recovery will continue."

Retail sales actually fell 1.5 percent last month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, a plunge that reflected the end of the government's popular Cash for Clunkers program. Still, that drop was less than the 2.1 percent fall economists expected.

On Wall Street, the better-than-expected retail sales figures and surprisingly strong earnings reports from Intel Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. spurred investors to push the Dow Jones industrial average above 10,000 for the first time this year.

The Dow added nearly 145 points, or 1.5 percent, to 10,015.86. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 18.83, or 1.8 percent, to 1,092.02, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 32.34, or 1.5 percent, to 2,172.23.

Sales at gasoline stations jumped 1.1 percent last month. Even with recent increases, gas prices are still well below the peaks of 2008. Compared with September 2008, consumers spent an estimated $3.25 billion less per week to gas up their cars, giving them money they can spend elsewhere.

Those margins have begun to narrow because at this time last year, retail gasoline prices were in free fall. Prices right now have stabilized around $2.50 per gallon. Still, Americans are spending $1.8 billion less per week now on gasoline.

But economists cautioned that consumer spending is unlikely to jump in coming months as households contend with rising unemployment, which now stands at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent, as well as tighter standards on bank loans and credit cards.




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