Oct. 17--Florida's unemployment rate jumped to 11 percent in September, pushing the total number of jobless statewide above 1 million for the first time.

In the Tampa Bay area, the news was even more grim: a jobless rate of 11.7 percent, up from 11.4 percent in August.

Separately, the Labor Department reported that personal income in Florida fell slightly in the second quarter, missing out on a rebound enjoyed by most of the country.

Put together, the economic barometers released Friday present a sobering reality: Notwithstanding percolating stock markets and a near-consensus among economists that the recession is technically over, Florida is still grappling to find a bottom in this downturn.

"Florida is probably going to lag in recovery at least a year behind the rest of the country," said Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wells Fargo Securities. He predicted Florida's unemployment will peak next year around 11.5 percent and that the national average, now at 9.8 percent, will peak at about 10.5 percent.

When it comes to Florida, "I confess we're low-balling those numbers a little bit," Vitner said, "because we don't want to scare the hell out of people."

Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Economy.com, said he was most surprised Friday to learn the state's labor force continues to contract so significantly. The state's available labor pool of 9.19 million is down 11,000 people in one month and 85,000 over the year.

Some of those 85,000 likely left Florida, but economists think many have temporarily stopped looking for work until the economy improves. Because they're out of the labor pool, they're not counted in calculating the unemployment rate.

Zandi says that increases the likelihood that Florida's jobless rate will reach 12 percent once those sitting on the sidelines try to re-enter the work force.

Florida entered the recession earlier than the rest of the country because of the housing bust. And ongoing turbulence in the housing market is key in hampering its recovery.

The flow of workers and retirees into Florida has halted with many homeowners underwater and/or unable to sell their homes. Access to credit remains tight. The tourism and travel industries are still under pressure. While the country as a whole saw personal income rise 0.2 percent in the second quarter, it fell in Florida by 0.2 percent, the fourth consecutive quarterly drop.

All of which makes it tough for companies to gain enough traction and confidence to start adding workers again.

It has often been described as a jobless recovery; Zandi floats another term.