Oct. 18--Harley-Davidson's 2009 third-quarter sales and profits turned around a recent trend of progressively worse numbers each quarter.

But what does a slightly better picture for a seller of leisure products, which cost thousands of dollars apiece, say about economic improvement?

Some local officials said the trend -- Harley on Thursday called it "moderation"-- isn't necessarily a light at the end of the tunnel.

It's probably too early to tell.

Bob Jensenius, executive vice president of the York County Chamber of Commerce, said there is a sense that demand exists in the economy, but that consumers are cautious.

He said Harley is one piece of a complicated mosaic, which also includes the housing market, capital spending and consumer trends.

He's looking at broad consumer demand through the holiday season to tell a better picture of the economy.

Another company making a leisure vehicle also recently reported its earnings, which also struggled in the recession.

Winnebago Industries' numbers for its fourth quarter, which ended at the end of August, were mixed compared to the same quarter in 2008. The company reported revenue of $59.5 million, down from $85.3 million a year ago.

But it did manage to lessen its operating loss from $18.9 million last year to about $9.2 million this year, the company said in its earnings statements.

Michael Smeltzer, executive director of the Manufacturers' Association of South Central Pennsylvania, said

it would be difficult to say that because of some slightly positive signs from Harley, the economy could be coming back.

Weakness still remains and there are few broad signs of improvements.

"We don't see that yet," he said.

And, he said, unemployment continues to be a problem.

It is likely that joblessness, and the trickle-down effects on the economy, will continue to hold strong.

Harley continues to see weakness in its Harley-Davidson Financial Services business segment, in part because because of lingering unemployment.

Losses in the internal loan operations, which provide financing to dealers and customers, are expected to continue in the coming months, executives said Thursday.

Controlling costs for Harley is at the root of its plans to either restructure its York vehicle assembly operations, the company's largest, or move elsewhere in the United States.

Earlier this fall, local management and union officials submitted a restructuring plan to corporate officials. Management later told workers the plan was viable, but required worker support.