Oct. 18--Ten thousand is a nice round number with a bunch of zeroes.

It is the smallest number with five digits in front of the decimal. Because of this and more, it was seen as a milestone when the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged above the mark for the first time in a year this week.

While it drew cheers on the floor of the stock exchange and got plenty of headlines, big investors were focused on another number.

They were looking at 52.7, a fairly mundane number as those things go. It could be the completion rate of some struggling quarterback or the average age when workers realize they don't have enough savings to retire.

In this case, it is neither of those. It is the percent increase in the Dow Jones since its March low.

Some say the Dow itself is outdated. It is 30 stocks, and that is not a large enough sample to measure the market.

Maybe that is so, but the index is still the most important one in the public's eye.

At any rate, while 10,000 is a nice number to look at, it is no more significant than numbers such as 9,981 or 10,123 when it comes to larger trends within the stock market.

The difference between those two random numbers is less than 1.5 percent. During a volatile market, that is maybe three minutes of trading.

Headlines and talking heads motivated by the milestone are one thing. Investors who react to the number could be a different thing completely.

It isn't uncommon to hear someone say they will get in the market when it reaches a certain level. That can make sense. It probably makes more sense than someone waiting for the market to rise to a certain level before they buy in.

The idea is to make money, and buying high is rarely part of a profit formula. Buy low, sell high makes sense. Buy high and hope doesn't.

More dangerous still is the possibility that a bubble could build in this market. If enough people who pulled their money out of the market a year ago decide to get back in, then prices will go higher simply on the principles of supply and demand.

That could lead to a drastic downturn in the future.

On the other hand, if people try to time the market and guess that the surge is ending, stocks are likely to fall.

Both of those are, for the short term, self-fulfilling things.

Certainly the index breaking the 10,000 barrier was noteworthy. It served to draw attention to the fact the stock market is actually doing pretty well, and has been for most of the past six months.

Trying to read the tea leaves by declaring that, since the market has reached that milestone, the rally is for real and will last for any specified period of time is probably not a wise strategy.

Likewise, deciding that the market has topped out simply because it broke a random barrier may not be the best way to predict future results.

Take it for what it is -- at least some investors feel good about something.

Cosby Woodruff can be reached at 240-1116 or by e-mail at cwoodruff@gannett.com

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