(Source: Fund Strategy)

Optimism flourishes and mergers and acquisitions activity rises
with some high-profile takeovers. Airlines, financial services and
healthcare are among the sectors ripe for consolidation.
Equity markets have been buoyed by activity returning to the
mergers and acquisitions (M&A) arena - witness Disney's $4 billion
(pound 2.5 billion) takeover of Marvel Entertainment and Kraft's
unsolicited bid for Cadbury. With companies able to raise capital
cheaply, sentiment remaining strong, and equities at their current
levels, we could be entering a boom time for such activity.
Globally, markets are up by about 50% since their low point on
March 9, as the vicious spiral of negativity following Lehman's
bankruptcy has gradually given way to tentative optimism.
Manufacturing and consumer confidence surveys have generally
troughed, improvements in global GDP forecasts are fuelling optimism
for a swifter-than-expected recovery, and earnings reports continue
to be generally in line with, or better than, expectations. Yet
share prices still look inexpensive on an historical basis, many
companies are flush with cash and chief executives are looking for
deals that will allow them to reshape their companies and create
value for shareholders. Correlation between equity markets and M&A
activity has historically been strong, typically with a lag of two
or three quarters. Fundamental data also supports a resurgence in
M&A: cash relative to share prices in 2010 will be at its highest in
at least two decades, while debt financing for acquisitions -
particularly investment grade credit - is more readily available.
The M&A boom in the 1980s was driven by strong economic growth,
rising equity values and the formation of the junk bond market that
provided funding for leveraged buyouts. Hostile bids were popular as
acquirers took advantage of the relatively depressed market value of
takeover targets. It all came to a rather sticky end after Black
Monday on October 19, 1987, when equities and the junk bond market
collapsed.
Out of the 1980s M&A boom emerged anti-takeover strategies - a
backlash to the hostile bids that had typified the boom. These
included "poison pills" and "staggered boards", which could prevent
takeovers or at least secure a higher price for shareholders. These
were popular until the late 1990s when memories of the 1980s finally
dimmed and markets were spurred on by the prospect of the next M&A
boom. This lasted until 2001 when the collapse of the dotcom bubble
took the wind out of M&A's sails.