Oct. 20--Is the stimulus bill working?

Debate among pundits degenerates into dug-in ideological yes-or-no camps.

Indeed, it's probably helping somewhat, pulling us back from the brink. And it goosed GDP growth, which is reflected in company profits and in the 10,000-level Dow.

But it's probably not helping as much as supporters think. It hasn't helped many average folks yet.

Jobs are still going away.

Consumers are still sitting on their wallets and keeping their purses snapped shut.

Credit is still tight.

Cost-cutting is what's driving company profits.

In a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, 45 percent of respondents said the stimulus package was a "bad idea" while 34 percent said it was a "good idea." But 47 percent said "it would or was beginning" to help the economy versus 38 percent who said "it would not help the economy."

The supporters of the stimulus base a big part of their argument on the fact that it's really not kicked in yet. Gee, they say, just a little more than 20 percent of $787 billion package has been spent.

A good point, but doesn't that also mean it can't have had much effect yet? Twenty percent of $787 billion is about $158 billion. Measured against a $14 trillion economy, that's just a 1 percent input.

Really, it's too early to say either way. Seventy-five percent of the stimulus money is still to be poured into the economy through 2010.

But when the stimulus package was being debated, the administration said it would hold unemployment to 8.5 percent.

The questions now: Will joblessness return to that level before the midterm elections next year? And will voters give the stimulus credit? Or will the upturn be the result of the normal economic cycle?

And if we don't start producing jobs, when will the pundits start calling it the Obama recession?

BONUS ROUNDS:

--Delusional about house prices?

At The Huffington Post, blogger Henry Blodget takes note of an interesting point in the Case-Shiller housing survey that tracks home prices in 20 large cities (but not in KC).

Prices rose 3.6 percent from April to July, the sharpest change in direction the survey has ever seen.

But the survey also asks respondents to estimate what prices will do over the short and long term. Surprisingly, the long-term view hasn't changed much since the bubble's peak.

Long term, Americans say, their houses will grow in value by 11 percent a year. That's extremely optimistic. You could even say delusional.