Oct. 20--The markets are up. From Hasbro to Intel to Apple, companies that rely on retail sales are reporting glimmers of holiday hope.

Could this be the quarter when consumers finally overcome their anxieties and help pull the country out of the Great Recession?

Analysts say the signals remain mixed, despite some evidence the economy has turned a corner at last. Perspective also plays a part, making anything that isn't awful look good -- or, as the old lyric puts it, "Been down so long it looks like up to me."

Even if it's already over, the longest downturn since the Great Depression has been a dismal season for retailers. Compared with the year before, 2008's holiday sales were down 3.4 percent, according to the National Retail Federation, which recently predicted an additional drop this year of 1 percent.

Recent data suggest that the final numbers for 2009's holidays could be flat or even slightly positive. But some analysts and companies see more hopeful signs.

Last week, Intel said it expected fourth-quarter sales of $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion, much better than the average $9.5 billion projected in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Hasbro reported yesterday that it saw early signs of a rise in fourth-quarter toy sales, a holiday bellwether.

Across much of the economy, September sales were up modestly from August, and better than expected. Excluding sales of motor vehicles and parts, the Census Bureau said, retail sales rose 0.5 percent in September from the month before -- albeit still down 4.9 percent from September 2008.

"Retail sales in September were an indicator that we are on a recovery path," said Hemant Sangwan, a consultant at IHS Global Insight Inc. who tracks consumer and retailer activity. He said the rise in retail sales from July through September would generate a 2.9 percent annual increase if the uptick persisted.

Still, Sangwan said that was far from certain, with unemployment rates hovering near 10 percent, housing values depressed, and other sources of economic anxiety.

"The clouds don't look that dark -- they can see a ray of hope now," he said. "But there is still some uncertainty in consumers' minds: whether I should spend or not?"

Projections for the fourth quarter vary widely.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, said he expected this Christmas season's numbers to be at best slightly positive.

"September retail sales were better than we expected, although I'm suspicious that they may get revised," Zandi said.