Oct. 22--Manufacturing jobs have been among the hardest hit during Rhode Island's recession.

The state has lost more than 9,000 jobs in the sector since the downturn began in 2007. That has left 42,100 jobs here, less than half the number in 1990.

For the laid-off workers who once earned a paycheck in the machine shops and on the factory floors, the question is will the jobs come back when the economy recovers.

Economists are not hopeful. They said many of the lost Rhode Island jobs have gone to China or other developing countries in Asia, while others have disappeared because new technology allows manufacturers to produce more with fewer employees. They project little, if any, post-recession growth in manufacturing.

But state officials, and some manufacturing executives here, are more optimistic. They say manufacturing-job growth is possible if Rhode Island focuses on developing bioscience, defense and green-energy industries.

"Specialized, high-tech, niche industries are the ones that can work here," said Ray Byrnes, president and CEO of Contech Medical, Inc., a Providence-based company that employs 110 workers.

Economists and state officials agree that the low-skilled, mass-production jobs will continue to disappear. The future lies in making highly engineered, customized products, often produced in smaller quantities, which requires a work force with more technical skills.

That will require training young workers and retraining older ones, including people who have been laid off. "Investing in your workers provides the greatest return on your investment. I can't preach that enough," said Peter Woodberry, dean of business, science and technology at the Community College of Rhode Island.

So far this year, there have been more manufacturing jobs lost -- 5,400 -- than in any other sector as Rhode Island's jobless rate climbed to 13 percent in September, with 74,000 people out of work.

Mike Lynch, regional economist for IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting and analysis firm, said his projections for the state show a slow rebound in manufacturing jobs, perhaps 2,000, once the recession bottoms out in 2010. But after 2014, he said, there will be continued erosion, and 10 years from now, there will be about 40,000 manufacturing jobs in the state.

Edinaldo Tebaldi, assistant professor of economics at Bryant University, is not projecting the return of lost manufacturing jobs -- "I think they're gone forever" -- although he believes the rate of job loss will slow. Tebaldi also said the manufacturing sector will have about 40,000 jobs.

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