Oct. 22--The grueling slide in home prices isn't over yet, but the end may be in sight.

A new forecast by Fiserv Inc. predicts median home prices nationally will drop another 11.3 percent through the first half of next year but then will rise 3.6 percent by the middle of 2011.

In Wisconsin's biggest metro areas, home prices -- as they have throughout the downturn -- are expected to fall less than in cities in boom states such as California and Florida. But then they will appreciate more slowly than the national average once the corner is turned.

While median home prices in the United States will begin rebounding in the second half of 2010, prices in six of 12 Wisconsin metro areas will go up only slightly, and the other six will lose a bit more value in 2011, the Fiserv analysis indicates.

Still, that prospect is better for home sellers than almost constant declines for more than three years.

"Time is what's going to cure it. And the thing to remember with respect to time is we're pretty far along in the correction," said David Stiff, chief economist for Brookfield-based Fiserv.

What time does is let the ratio of median family income to house prices come back into better alignment. As that income-to-price gap narrows, houses on the market find owners and the oversupply is reduced.

"Right now, there's just too much supply and not enough demand," Stiff said.

William Malkasian, president of the Wisconsin Realtors Association, said Fiserv's findings make sense.

"The bubble was not here," Malkasian said. "We never went up as fast, so we never went down as fast. Logic says that we were not a big investor-type state where people were flipping, so we never had massive appreciation. Yes, there is a decline, but the decline today is much more driven by distressed properties."

Malkasian said that with the help of a first-time homebuyer tax credit of up to $8,000, which is set to expire Dec. 1, homes costing $225,000 or less are selling often enough that there is price appreciation in some markets. That's not the case with more expensive homes.

The glut of foreclosures still is taking a toll, too, in reducing overall prices and maintaining the oversupply. Economists see the foreclosure crisis lasting into next year because as more people lose their jobs, they aren't able to keep up with monthly payments.

"If you have a foreclosure next to your house, it's going to impact your property," Malkasian said.