The first word in the report accompanying September's SurveyMemphis economic assessment is "pessimism."

With unemployment rates staying high and house sales remaining low, September's economic barometer reads much like previous months.

"Pessimism regarding the local and national economies is reflected in forward-looking sentiment in the survey responses," states the report assembled by University of Memphis' Sparks Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

But one business leader - who has his ear to the ground along with hundreds of his associates - points to a promising sign: real estate activity.

Activity for real estate agents is picking up, said the co- founder of the area's largest agency, Crye-Leike Realtors.

"We have seen our appointments jump up," Dick Leike said. "All our appointments come through our appointment center. We can keep tabs on how many appointments are set up on listings. We've seen an increase on that, where appointments are up 20 percent over the same month last year."

In September, Crye-Leike sold 680 homes in Memphis and DeSoto, compared to 746 in September 2008, Leike said.

"We were down about 8 or 9 percent," Leike said. "But that's better than what year-to-date is running. It's down about 13 percent. It appears to be getting better."

That upward trend is not yet being reflected in SurveyMemphis, which is funded by The Commercial Appeal and the Memphis Branch of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.

Local business leaders respond monthly to questions about how they feel on eight economic indicators.

The responses are given in a numerical value and averaged, with 50 being neutral, above 50 positive and below negative.

For September, the only categories rated in positive territory were national outlook, 56.1, general business conditions, 53, and shipping volume, 65.8.

Falling below 50 were the outlook for local business conditions, 45.5, employment, 32.8, gross sales, 48.3, business travel, 43.5, and energy costs, 18.

Despite all the negatives, University of Memphis economist Dr. Jeff Wallace pointed out a bright sign especially important to Memphis: shipping volume. Its value shot up 23.5 points over August's number.

"That kind of jives with what I've been hearing from FedEx and some of the other shippers," Wallace said. "Business inventories are real low. And it's getting to the point where they'll have to restock and replenish, which means higher shipping. There are some positive signs in this."

Even though the economic recovery is beginning, people are still pessimistic, Wallace said.

"I think in large part that is due to the unemployment situation."

Even if the economic turnaround has begun, it doesn't mean the jobless rate will start falling anytime soon, Wallace said.

"It's going to take a while to get back all the jobs that were lost."

- Tom Bailey Jr.: 529-2388

--------------------

September SurveyMemphis

The monthly survey gauges how business leaders are feeling about eight segments of the economy. A score of 50 is neutral, over is positive and below is negative. (August rating)

National outlook: 56.1 (65.4)

Outlook for local business conditions: 45.5 (50)

General business conditions: 53 (61.5)

Employment: 32.8 (38)

Gross sales: 48.3 (50)

Shipping volume: 65.8 (42.3)

Business travel: 43.5 (40.9)

Energy costs: 18 (18)

"It's going to take a while to get back all the jobs that were lost."

Dr. Jeff Wallace

University of Memphis economist

--------------------

Originally published by Tom Bailey Jr. baileytom@commercialappeal.com .

(c) 2009 Commercial Appeal, The. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.

A service of YellowBrix, Inc.