(Source: MARKETWIRE)

Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA)
HIGHLIGHTS
-- Company-owned comparable sales (calendar basis) up 6.9% in the first 27
days of Q4 09
-- Franchise comparable sales (calendar basis) up 6.3% in the first 27 days
of Q4 09
-- Q3 2009 Company-owned comparable bakery-cafe sales up 3.3% over Q3 2008
-- Q3 2009 operating margin up 230 bps over Q3 2008
-- Q3 2009 net income up 38% over Q3 2008
-- Q4 2009 EPS target $0.85 to $0.87 (net of $0.05 of expected asset
retirement expenses)
-- FY 2010 EPS target set at $3.05 to $3.15 (up 14% to 18% versus target for
FY 2009)
Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) today reported net income of $19
million, or $0.61 per diluted share, for the third quarter ended
September 29, 2009, which included the net impact of $0.04 per diluted
share of nonrecurring charges resulting from (i) unexpected expenses
associated primarily with a state sales tax audit and (ii) an
unexpected gain from the Company's partial redemption of its
investment in the Columbia Strategic Cash Portfolio. These results
compare to net income of $14 million, or $0.45 per diluted share, for
the third quarter ended September 23, 2008 and represent a 38%
year-over-year increase in net income.
For the thirty-nine weeks ended September 29, 2009, net income was
$56 million, or $1.82 per diluted share. These results compare to net
income of $42 million, or $1.38 per diluted share, for the thirty-nine
weeks ended September 23, 2008 and represent a 35% year-over-year
increase in net income.
The Company's third quarter and year-to-date fiscal 2009 consolidated
statements of operations and margin analysis are attached as Schedule
I. The following tables set forth, for the periods indicated, certain
items included in the Company's consolidated statements of operations
(in thousands, except per share data and percentages):
For the 13 Weeks Ended
-----------------------------
September 29, September 23, Percentage
2009 2008 Change
-------------- -------------- -----------
Total revenue $ 335,018 $ 315,195 6%
Net income $ 18,894 $ 13,740 38%
Diluted earnings per share $ 0.61 $ 0.45 35%
Shares used in diluted EPS 31,065 30,557
For the 39 Weeks Ended
-----------------------------
September 29, September 23, Percentage
2009 2008 Change
-------------- -------------- -----------
Total revenue $ 986,521 $ 941,041 5%
Net income $ 56,356 $ 41,887 35%
Diluted earnings per share $ 1.82 $ 1.38 32%
Shares used in diluted EPS 30,925 30,383
Third Quarter Fiscal 2009 Business Review
Comparable Bakery-Cafe Sales Growth
In the third quarter of fiscal 2009, Company-owned comparable
bakery-cafe sales increased 3.3% versus the comparable period in
fiscal 2008, increasing sequentially over the prior year in each
fiscal monthly period in the third quarter of fiscal 2009 (2.6%,
3.0%, and 4.4%, respectively). Franchise-operated comparable
bakery-cafe sales increased 2.5% and system-wide comparable
bakery-cafe sales increased 2.8% versus the comparable period in
fiscal 2008.
The Company-owned comparable bakery-cafe sales increase of 3.3% in
the third quarter of fiscal 2009 included the following year-over-year
components: transaction growth of 1.8% and average check growth of
1.5%. Average check growth in turn was comprised of retail price
increases of approximately 2.25% and negative mix impact of
approximately (0.75)%.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2009, transaction growth and average
check growth were fueled by new product introductions, investments in
marketing and the improved strength of the catering business.
Operating Margin Improvement
In the third quarter of fiscal 2009, the Company generated operating
margin improvement of approximately 230 basis points compared to the
third quarter of fiscal 2008. This was primarily a result of sales
leverage, year-over-year benefits from purchasing efficiencies and
wheat and diesel fuel cost decreases.
New Unit AWS and Development
In the third quarter of fiscal 2009, average weekly sales ("AWS") for
Company-owned new units increased to $36,930 compared to $36,383 in
the third quarter of fiscal 2008. AWS for Company-owned new units
year-to-date through the third quarter of fiscal 2009 was $37,068
compared to $36,505 in the same period of fiscal 2008. A schedule of
the Company's third quarter fiscal 2009 AWS is attached as Schedule
II.
During the third quarter of fiscal 2009, the Company and its
franchisees opened 19 new bakery-cafes system-wide, resulting in 1,362
bakery-cafes open system-wide as of the end of the third quarter of
fiscal 2009. The breakdown of Company-owned and franchise-operated
bakery-cafes are as
follows:
Franchise-
Company-owned operated Total System
-------------- ------------- -------------
Bakery-cafes as of
June 30, 2009 566 779 1,345
Bakery-cafes opened 9 10 19
Bakery-cafes closed - (2) (2)
-------------- ------------- -------------
Bakery-cafes as of
September 29, 2009 575 787 1,362
============== ============= =============
Fourth Quarter 2009 Outlook and 2010 Business Outlook
Establishing Fourth Quarter 2009 Targets
Diluted EPS Target
For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009, the Company is targeting
earnings per diluted share of $0.85 to $0.87, net of $0.05 per diluted
share of nonrecurring charges for expected asset retirement expenses
during the fourth quarter.
The fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 has 13 weeks versus the 14 weeks of
the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008.
The fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 diluted earnings per share target
is built on the following key metrics:
Comparable Bakery-Cafe Sales Growth
Fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 Company-owned comparable bakery-cafe
sales growth, when measured on a calendar basis, is targeted at 5.0%
to 6.0%. The assumptions underlying this comparable bakery-cafe sales
growth target for the fourth quarter are transaction growth of 2.0%
to 2.5% and average check growth of 3.0% to 3.5%, with average check
growth consisting of approximately 2.0% price and 1.0% to 1.5% mix
impact on average check.
Company-owned comparable bakery-cafe sales growth on a fiscal basis
for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009, when targeted utilizing the
same assumptions underlying the comparable bakery-cafe sales growth
on a calendar basis, are 3.5% to 4.5%.
Comparable bakery-cafe sales on a calendar basis are different than
those on a fiscal basis because, while comparable bakery-cafe sales on
a calendar basis match specific weeks on the calendar in 2009 to the
same specific weeks on the calendar in 2008, comparable bakery-cafe
sales on a fiscal basis do not.
As stated above in this release, the fourth fiscal quarter of 2009
will have 13 operating weeks which is different than the fourth fiscal
quarter of 2008 which had 14 operating weeks. In order to provide a
clear comparison, however, the fourth quarter target was developed
comparing the 13 operating weeks of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009
versus 13 operating weeks in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. The
13 operating weeks on a calendar basis are different, however, than
the 13 operating weeks on a fiscal basis.
To be specific, the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 began on September
30, will end on December 29 and will include the Christmas holiday.
The comparable 13 weeks of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 on a
calendar basis began on October 1, ended on December 30 and included
the Christmas holiday as well, while the comparable 13 weeks of the
fourth quarter of 2008 on a fiscal basis began on September 24, ended
on December 23 and excluded the Christmas holiday. The holiday shift
results in the difference between the comparable bakery-cafe sales on
a calendar basis and a fiscal basis.
The Company believes that comparable bakery-cafe sales measured on a
calendar basis are a more stable and appropriate measure for
investors to use when attempting to understand the Company's
underlying fundamentals.
The Company is announcing today that Company-owned comparable
bakery-cafe sales growth through the first 27 days of the fourth
quarter of 2009 (beginning September 30, 2009 and ended October 26,
2009) when measured on a calendar basis were 6.9% and when measured
on a fiscal basis were 8.2%.
On a calendar basis, the Company is targeting Company-owned
comparable bakery-cafe sales growth of 4.25% to 5.75% in both fiscal
period 11 and period 12. On a fiscal basis, the Company is targeting
Company-owned comparable bakery-cafe sales growth of 0.75% to 2.25% in
fiscal period 11 and 2.75% to 4.25% in fiscal period 12.
Operating Margin Improvement
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009, the Company is targeting 0 to
50 basis points of improvement in operating margin net of expected
asset retirement expenses. If the expected asset retirement expenses
are excluded, operating margin improvement would be targeted at 75 to
125 basis points. This projected improvement reflects the impact of
sales leverage and the anticipated year-over-year savings in the cost
of wheat, diesel fuel and other commodity costs, partially offset by
the Company's plans to continue investing in initiatives intended to
drive transaction growth and increased market share.
New Unit AWS and Development
The Company is targeting approximately 20 system-wide new unit
openings in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009. AWS for new
Company-owned units is expected to come in at $38,000 to $40,000 for
the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 and finish the year in the top half
of the range of the Company's full year target of $36,000 to $38,000.
Full Year 2010 Targets
Establishing Full Year Fiscal 2010 Targets
The Company is today setting its initial target for fiscal 2010
earnings per share at $3.05 to $3.15 per diluted share, which would
represent an increase of 14% to 18% in year-over-year diluted
earnings per share from the mid-point of the range for fiscal 2009.
The continued volatility in the economy makes it difficult to set
future targets, but many of the cost inputs for fiscal 2010 are
already fixed and clearly understood.
The Company's fiscal 2010 target assumes Company-owned comparable
bakery-cafe sales growth of 3.0% to 5.0%. This target assumes
transaction growth of between 0% and 2% and average check growth of 2%
to 4%. The Company is projecting that it will take modest price
increases during fiscal 2010 to cover inflation in costs below gross
margin.
In terms of operating margin expansion, the Company is targeting 25
to 75 basis points of improvement in operating profit as a percent of
total revenues.
The Company is targeting approximately 80 to 90 new unit openings in
fiscal 2010 with slightly more than half being Company-owned. Average
weekly sales for new Company-owned units is assumed to be $36,000 to
$38,000 in fiscal 2010.
Concluding Comment
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ron Shaich concluded, "Over the
last several quarters, we've spoken about our commitment to invest in
our business to benefit the customer and to utilize the recession to
build competitive advantage. We believe our 35% EPS growth in Q3 and
the strength of our comparable bakery-cafe sales (up 6.9% on a
calendar basis Q4 to date), as well as our positive transaction
growth, proves that this strategy is working and that we are indeed
taking market share from our competitors.