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Methanex Reports Third Quarter Results-Methanol Demand Continues to Improve
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 9:52 PM


(Source: MARKETWIRE)trackingMethanex Corporation (TSX: MX)(NASDAQ: MEOH)(SANTIAGO: Methanex) -

For the third quarter of 2009, Methanex reported Adjusted EBITDA(1) of $31.0 million and a net loss of $0.8 million ($0.01 per share on a diluted basis). This compares with Adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million and a net loss of $5.7 million ($0.06 per share on a diluted basis) for the second quarter of 2009.

Bruce Aitken, President and CEO of Methanex, commented, "It is pleasing to see the beginning of recovery in our numbers for the quarter. Sales volumes are up 13% from Q2 2009 and realized methanol prices rose about 16%. These results translated into improved EBITDA, cash generation and earnings. However, the quarter was negatively impacted by a number of mostly one-off costs such as stock-based compensation and unplanned outages at our plants in Chile and Trinidad."

Mr. Aitken added, "During the third quarter, methanol demand increased in all regions globally and industry supply was impacted by many planned and unplanned outages. These factors have led to a recent strong recovery in methanol prices which provides upward momentum to our earnings in the fourth quarter. And with increases in production expected from our Chile operations and our new project in Egypt over the next year, there is significantly more upside potential to our earnings."

Mr. Aitken concluded, "With US$197 million of cash on hand at the end of the quarter, a strong balance sheet, no near term refinancing requirements, and an undrawn credit facility, we are well positioned to continue to invest to grow the Company."

A conference call is scheduled for October 28, 2009 at 11:00 am ET (8:00 am PT) to review these third quarter results. To access the call, dial the Conferencing operator ten minutes prior to the start of the call at (416) 340-8018, or toll free at (866) 223-7781. A playback version of the conference call will be available for fourteen days at (416) 695-5800, or toll free at (800) 408-3053. The security passcode for the playback version is 6704266. There will be a simultaneous audio-only webcast of the conference call, which can be accessed from our website at www.methanex.com. In addition, an audio recording of the conference call can be downloaded from our website for three weeks after the call.

Methanex is a Vancouver-based, publicly traded company and is the world's largest supplier of methanol to major international markets. Methanex shares are listed for trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada under the trading symbol "MX", on the NASDAQ Global Market in the United States under the trading symbol "MEOH", and on the foreign securities market of the Santiago Stock Exchange in Chile under the trading symbol "Methanex". Methanex can be visited online at www.methanex.com.

FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION WARNING

This Third Quarter 2009 press release contains forward-looking statements with respect to us and the chemical industry. Refer to Forward-Looking Information Warning in the attached Third Quarter 2009 Management's Discussion and Analysis for more information.

(1) Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and therefore is unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Refer to Additional Information - Supplemental Non-GAAP Measures in the attached Third Quarter 2009 Management's Discussion and Analysis for a description of each supplemental non-GAAP measure and a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measure.

Interim Report For the Three Months Ended September 30, 2009
At October 27, 2009 the Company had 92,108,242 common shares issued and
outstanding and stock options exercisable for 2,680,636 additional common
shares.
Share Information
Methanex Corporation's common shares are listed for trading on the Toronto
Stock Exchange under the symbol MX, on the Nasdaq Global Market under the
symbol MEOH and on the foreign securities market of the Santiago Stock
Exchange in Chile under the trading symbol Methanex.
Transfer Agents & Registrars
CIBC Mellon Trust Company
320 Bay Street
Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5H 4A6
Toll free in North America:
1-800-387-0825
Investor Information
All financial reports, news releases and corporate information can be
accessed on our website at www.methanex.com.
Contact Information
Methanex Investor Relations
1800 - 200 Burrard Street
Vancouver, BC Canada V6C 3M1
E-mail: invest@methanex.com
Methanex Toll-Free: 1-800-661-8851

THIRD QUARTER MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS

Except where otherwise noted, all currency amounts are stated in United States dollars.

This Third Quarter 2009 Management's Discussion and Analysis dated October 27, 2009 should be read in conjunction with the 2008 Annual Consolidated Financial Statements and the Management's Discussion and Analysis included in the Methanex 2008 Annual Report. The Methanex 2008 Annual Report and additional information relating to Methanex is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov.

                                 Three Months Ended       Nine Months Ended
                            ---------------------------  ------------------
($ millions, except          Sep 30    Jun 30    Sep 30    Sep 30    Sep 30
 where noted)                  2009      2009      2008      2009      2008
-------------------------------------------------------  ------------------
Sales volumes (thousands
 of tonnes)
 Produced methanol              943       941       946     2,884     2,534
 Purchased methanol             480       329       429     1,079     1,639
 Commission sales (1)           194       161       172       486       483
-------------------------------------------------------  ------------------
 Total sales volumes          1,617     1,431     1,547     4,449     4,656
Methanex average
 non-discounted posted
 price ($ per tonne) (2)        251       211       499       227       564
Average realized price
 ($ per tonne) (3)              222       192       413       205       455
Adjusted EBITDA (4)            31.0      24.8     139.5      68.9     343.7
Cash flows from
 operating activities           1.4      14.0     127.6      83.3     269.5
Cash flows from
 operating activities
 before changes in
 non-cash working
 capital (4)                   36.3      17.7     103.5      58.8     271.4
Operating income
 (loss) (4)                     3.1      (4.0)    108.3     (16.7)    263.0
Net income (loss)              (0.8)     (5.7)     70.0     (25.0)    172.7
Basic net income (loss)
 per common share             (0.01)    (0.06)     0.75     (0.27)     1.81
Diluted net income (loss)
 per common share             (0.01)    (0.06)     0.74     (0.27)     1.81
Common share information
(millions of shares):
 Weighted average
  number of common
  shares                       92.1      92.0      93.9      92.0      95.2
 Diluted weighted
  average number of
  common shares                92.1      92.0      94.3      92.0      95.7
 Number of common
  shares outstanding,
  end of period                92.1      92.0      93.4      92.1      93.4
-------------------------------------------------------  ------------------
(1) Commission sales represent volumes marketed on a commission basis.
    Commission income is included in revenue when earned.
(2) Methanex average non-discounted posted price represents the average of
    our non-discounted posted prices in North America, Europe and Asia
    Pacific weighted by sales volume. Current and historical pricing
    information is available at www.methanex.com.
(3) Average realized price is calculated as revenue, net of commissions
    earned, divided by the total sales volumes of produced and purchased
    methanol.
(4) These items are non-GAAP measures that do not have any standardized
    meaning prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principles
    (GAAP) and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures
    presented by other companies. Refer to Additional Information -
    Supplemental Non-GAAP Measures for a description of each non-GAAP
    measure and a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measure.

PRODUCTION SUMMARY

                                                             YTD       YTD
(thousands                 Q3 2009   Q2 2009   Q3 2008   Q3 2009   Q3 2008
 of             Capacity   Product-  Product-  Product-  Product-  Product-
 tonnes)              (1)      ion       ion       ion       ion       ion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chile I, II,
 III and IV          960       197       252       246       677       816
Titan                213       188       165       200       576       646
Atlas (63.1%
 interest)           268       257       275       284       736       865
New Zealand (2)      350       202       203       126       599       370
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   1,791       844       895       856     2,588     2,697
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) The production capacities for our Trinidad plants are stated at
    original nameplate capacity. These facilities are able to operate above
    original nameplate capacity as a result of efficiencies gained through
    improvements and experience at these plants. The production capacity
    for our facilities in Chile and New Zealand may be higher than original    nameplate capacity as, over time, these figures have been adjusted to
    reflect ongoing operating efficiencies at these facilities.
(2) In October 2008, we restarted one of our two idled 900,000 tonne per
    year facilities at our Motunui site in New Zealand and we idled our
    530,000 tonne per year Waitara Valley facility. We have the flexibility
    to operate the Motunui plant or the Waitara Valley plant or both
    depending on methanol supply and demand dynamics and the availability
    of natural gas on commercially acceptable terms and accordingly, we
    have included both of these facilities in the production capacity for
    New Zealand. We have excluded the second Motunui facility from
    production capacity in New Zealand as we currently do not intend to
    restart this facility.

Chile

Our methanol facilities in Chile produced 197,000 tonnes during the third quarter of 2009 compared with 252,000 tonnes during the second quarter of 2009. Production from our Chile facilities for the third quarter of 2009 was lower compared with the second quarter of 2009 primarily due to plant mechanical issues that led to unplanned outages in the third quarter of 2009 which resulted in lost production of approximately 65,000 tonnes.

We are currently operating our methanol facilities in Chile at approximately 25 to 30% of capacity primarily due to curtailments of our natural gas supply from Argentina - refer to the Management's Discussion and Analysis included in our 2008 Annual Report for more information.

Our goal is ultimately to return to operating all four of our plants in Chile with natural gas from suppliers in Chile. We are pursuing investment opportunities with the state-owned energy company Empresa Nacional del Petroleo (ENAP), GeoPark Chile Limited (GeoPark) and others to help accelerate natural gas exploration and development in southern Chile. During 2007, we signed an agreement with GeoPark under which we provided $40 million in financing to support and accelerate GeoPark's natural gas exploration and development activities in the Fell block in southern Chile and we have recently signed an agreement to provide a further $18 million in financing to support GeoPark's natural gas exploration and development activities in southern Chile. GeoPark has agreed to supply us with all natural gas sourced from the Fell block under a ten-year exclusive supply arrangement. In May 2008, we signed an agreement with ENAP to accelerate natural gas exploration and development in the Dorado Riquelme exploration block in southern Chile and to supply natural gas to our production facilities in Chile. Final government approvals were received in the third quarter of 2009. Under the arrangement, we fund a 50% participation in the block and as at September 30, 2009, we had contributed approximately $60 million. For the third quarter of 2009 approximately 50% of total production at our Chilean facilities was produced with natural gas supplied from the Fell and Dorado Riquelme blocks. We expect natural gas supply from these blocks to further increase during 2009 and we expect that we will be able to startup a second plant at our Chile site later in 2009. We believe the increased natural gas supply and the startup of a second plant will result in more than 20% higher production from our Chile site over the next year.

There continues to be other investment activities supporting the acceleration of natural gas exploration and development in areas of southern Chile. In late 2007, the government of Chile completed an international bidding round to assign oil and natural gas exploration areas that lie close to our production facilities and announced the participation of five international oil and gas companies. Under the terms of the agreements from the bidding round there are minimum investment commitments. Planning and exploration activities have commenced. In July 2008, we announced that under the international bidding round, the Otway exploration block in southern Chile was awarded to a consortium that includes Wintershall, GeoPark, and Methanex. Wintershall and GeoPark each own a 42% interest in the consortium and we own a 16% interest. Exploration work is expected to commence during the fourth quarter of 2009. The minimum exploration investment committed in the Otway block by the consortium for the first phase is $11 million over the next three years.

We cannot provide assurance that ENAP, GeoPark or others will be successful in the exploration and development of natural gas or that we will obtain any additional natural gas from suppliers in Chile on commercially acceptable terms.

Trinidad

Our Atlas and Titan methanol facilities in Trinidad represent over 2.0 million tonnes of competitive cost annual capacity. Our methanol facilities in Trinidad produced a total of 445,000 tonnes during the third quarter of 2009 compared with 440,000 tonnes during the second quarter of 2009. We completed planned turnaround activities for the Titan facility in June and early July 2009 and we also had an unplanned outage at our Atlas facility during the third quarter of 2009.

New Zealand

Our New Zealand facilities produced 202,000 tonnes during the third quarter of 2009 compared with 203,000 tonnes during second quarter of 2009.

In October 2008, we restarted one of our two idled 900,000 tonne per year facilities at our Motunui site in New Zealand and we idled our smaller scale 530,000 tonne Waitara Valley facility. We have the flexibility to operate the Motunui plant or the Waitara Valley plant or both depending on methanol supply and demand dynamics and the availability of natural gas on commercially acceptable terms.

EARNINGS ANALYSIS

Our operations consist of a single operating segment - the production and sale of methanol. In addition to the methanol that we produce at our facilities, we also purchase and re-sell methanol produced by others and we sell methanol on a commission basis. We analyze the results of all methanol sales together. The key drivers of changes in our Adjusted EBITDA for methanol sales are average realized price, sales volume and cash costs.

For a further discussion of the definitions and calculations used in our Adjusted EBITDA analysis, refer to How We Analyze Our Business.

For the third quarter of 2009, we recorded Adjusted EBITDA of $31.0 million and a net loss of $0.8 million ($0.01 per share on a diluted basis). This compares with Adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million and a net loss of $5.7 million ($0.06 per share on a diluted basis) for the second quarter of 2009 and Adjusted EBITDA of $139.5 million and net income of $70.0 million ($0.74 per share on a diluted basis) for the third quarter of 2008.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2009, we recorded Adjusted EBITDA of $68.9 million and a net loss of $25.0 million ($0.27 per share on a diluted basis). This compares with Adjusted EBITDA of $343.7 million and net income of $172.7 million ($1.81 per share on a diluted basis) during the same period in 2008.

Adjusted EBITDA

The increase (decrease) in Adjusted EBITDA resulted from changes in the following:

                                 Q3 2009           Q3 2009     YTD Q3 2009
                           compared with     compared with   compared with
($ millions)                     Q2 2009           Q3 2008     YTD Q3 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average realized price     $          42     $        (272)  $        (993)
Sales volumes                          7                 6             (21)
Total cash costs                     (43)              157             739
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                           $           6     $        (109)  $        (275)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Average realized price

                                 Three Months Ended      Nine Months Ended
                            --------------------------  ------------------
($ per tonne, except        Sep 30    Jun 30    Sep 30    Sep 30    Sep 30
 where noted)                 2009      2009      2008      2009      2008
------------------------------------------------------  ------------------
Methanex average
 non-discounted
 posted price (1)              251       211       499       227       564
Methanex average
 realized price                222       192       413       205       455
Average discount                12%        9%       17%       10%       19%
------------------------------------------------------  ------------------
 (1) Methanex average non-discounted posted price represents the average of
    our non-discounted posted prices in North America, Europe and Asia
    Pacific weighted by sales volume. Current and historical pricing
    information is available at www.methanex.com.

The global economic slowdown in the latter part of 2008 led to a sudden and significant reduction in global methanol demand and an increase in global inventories. This resulted in a decrease in contract methanol pricing during the fourth quarter of 2008 and into 2009. During 2009, global methanol demand has improved and as a result of this improvement in demand and some planned and unplanned plant outages across the industry, methanol prices have increased recently - refer to Supply/Demand Fundamentals section below for more information. Our average non-discounted posted price for the third quarter of 2009 was $251 per tonne compared with $211 per tonne for the second quarter of 2009 and $499 per tonne for the third quarter of 2008. Our average realized price for the third quarter of 2009 was $222 per tonne compared with $192 per tonne for the second quarter of 2009 and $413 per tonne for the third quarter of 2008. The changes in our average realized price for the third quarter of 2009 increased Adjusted EBITDA by $42 million compared with the second quarter of 2009 and decreased Adjusted EBITDA by $272 million compared with third quarter of 2008. Our average realized price for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 was $205 per tonne compared with $455 per tonne for the same period in 2008 and this decreased our Adjusted EBITDA by $993 million. For the third quarter of 2009 our average realized price was approximately 12% lower than our average non-discounted posted price. This compares with approximately 9% lower for the second quarter of 2009 and 17% lower for the third quarter of 2008. We have entered into long-term contracts for a portion of our production volume with certain global customers where prices are either fixed or linked to our costs plus a margin and accordingly, we expect the discount from our average non-discounted posted prices to widen during periods of higher methanol pricing.

Sales volumes

Total methanol sales volumes excluding commission sales volumes for the third quarter of 2009 were higher than the second quarter of 2009 and the third quarter of 2008 by 153,000 tonnes and 48,000 tonnes, respectively. This resulted in higher Adjusted EBITDA of $7 million and $6 million, respectively. Total methanol sales volumes excluding commission sales volumes for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 were lower compared with the same period in 2008 by 209,000 tonnes and this resulted in lower Adjusted EBITDA of $21 million.

Total cash costs

The primary driver of changes in our total cash costs are changes in the cost of methanol we produce at our facilities and changes in the cost of methanol we purchase from others. Our production facilities are underpinned by natural gas purchase agreements with pricing terms that include base and variable price components. The variable component is adjusted in relation to changes in methanol prices above pre-determined prices at the time of production.



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