Oct. 28--Home prices in South Florida continued to eke out modest gains even as confidence in the economy stalled, according to two widely-watched reports released Tuesday, sending mixed messages to a jittery market during the run-up to the critical holiday-shopping season.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index for Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties climbed 1.1 percent from July to August -- its fourth consecutive gain. Nationally, the index was up 1.2 percent.

Meanwhile, after improving for three straight months, Florida's Consumer Confidence Index was flat in October versus September. The survey is key because consumers account for about two-thirds of all spending and their confidence levels are often an accurate predictor of retail sales.

Chris McCarty, the survey director from the University of Florida, said consumers are torn. While they recognize that deep discounts make it a good time to shop, double-digit unemployment and unease over their personal finances make them wary.

With many economists predicting either flat or slightly better sales over last year's dismal performance, "nobody is expecting it to be a very good holiday season," he said.

Nationally, consumer confidence was even more rattled.

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that consumer confidence fell 5.7 points to 47.7, from September to October. That was more than analysts were expecting. Driving that decline was consumers' assessment of present-day conditions. That assessment hit its lowest level in 26 years, the board said.

"The drop in the consumer confidence index is a real wake-up call for those who thought the economy was out of the woods," Wells Fargo said in a letter to its clients.

However, real-estate watchers found reasons for hope.

The Case-Shiller index suggested a widespread turnaround, with prices rising month-over-month in 15 out of 20 metro areas since June.

Locally, the prices of homes and condos are more affordable than they have been in years, said David Dabby, a Coral Gables-based real-estate analyst.

"All the speculative price increase that occurred between 2003 and 2005 has disappeared," he said. "We are basically back to 2001 or 2002 levels, which were economically justified."

Even so, a backlog of foreclosures and a tight job market could keep housing prices relatively flat for months to come, experts said.

Another unknown is whether a temporary federal tax credit for first-time buyers will be extended to help boost sales. First-time home buyers can receive a credit of 10 percent of the sales price, up to $8,000. The real-estate industry is lobbying Congress to extend the credit past the Nov. 30 deadline.

Ken H. Johnson, a professor of real estate and finance at Florida International University, has been renting since 2005. His first reaction to Tuesday's news was: "I wonder if it's time to buy?"

While he is "guardedly optimistic" that the market has seen the worst of its declines, no one knows for sure.

"If I could predict where the market would go, I would own an island and its name is Australia," he said. "But my gut feeling is that we are near the bottom."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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