(Source: Irish Times)

The litany of uncertainties hanging over the big two in Irish
banking has reversed a rally that ran counter to fundamentals,
writes JOHN McMANUS
IRISH BANK shares have comes back down to earth with a bump. This
week saw the most precipitous declines, with AIB and Bank of Ireland
down 26 per cent and 35 per cent respectively before yesterday. The
trend, though, has been evident for several weeks, with both banks
down almost 50 per cent from their recent highs.
No one reason explains the reversal but there is a consensus that
banks shares are now back at a level more properly reflective of
their difficulties and those of the wider economy.
The run-up in Irish bank shares post the announcement last March
of the creation of the National Asset Management Agency (Nama) was
at odds with the fundamental uncertainties over how Nama would work
in practice and when operations would get under way.
The wavering attitude of the Government when it comes to
attacking the hole in the exchequer finances also seemed to be
ignored by investors.
The rally also had a self-fulfilling aspect. The higher bank
shares rose, the less potentially diluting would be the impact of
the recapitalisations associated with Nama on the existing
shareholders.
Both banks will require fresh capital in order to absorb the
losses on the loans being sold to Nama, but their buoyant share
prices held out the prospect that the money might come from sources
other than the Government.
Something similar is now working in reverse.