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Ahead of the Bell: Employment cost index
Friday, October 30, 2009 6:57 AM


(Source: Associated Press/AP Online)trackingWASHINGTON - Employment costs likely edged up this summer as high unemployment kept a lid on wage and benefit growth.

Despite early signs of a broad economic recovery, the weak labor market makes it difficult for people with jobs to demand higher pay and benefits. At the same time, companies can keep workers without having to offer higher compensation.

Wall Street economists expect the Labor Department's Employment Cost Index increased 0.4 percent in the July-September quarter, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters. That would match the second quarter increase and barely beat the 0.3 percent rise in the first quarter, which was the lowest on record.

The Labor Department is scheduled to release the report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that the economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the July-September quarter, snapping a record streak of four straight quarterly declines.

But the economy isn't growing quickly enough to spur much hiring. The unemployment rate reached 9.8 percent in September, a 26-year high, and many economists expect it to peak above 10 percent early next year. The recession also has caused many companies to cut wages and benefits.

Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimate the index will increase only 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in September, the weakest yearly increase since it began in 1982.

Low labor costs also help hold down inflation. Many economists believe that the Federal Reserve will not begin worrying about inflation and the need to boost interest rates until the unemployment rate begins to drop.

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