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Economy Swings into Growth Mode, but Depth of Recovery in Doubt
Friday, October 30, 2009 1:56 PM


(Source: Chicago Tribune)trackingBy Kathy Bergen, Chicago Tribune

Oct. 30--The owner of a plastic molding firm in Batavia feels the shift. A caterer in Lisle doesn't.

The government says the economy grew in the July-to-September period, snapping a streak of four straight quarters of economic contraction that brought the U.S. to the depths of recession and the cusp of a financial meltdown.

Stocks rallied on the better-than-expected report, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising 199.89 points, to close at 9962.58, its best day in 3 1/2 months.

But the glimmers of hope contained in Thursday's economic news are not the stuff of widespread warmth.

The federal government's rebates for car purchases and its $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers fueled much of the economic expansion, which clocked in at a 3.5 percent annual growth rate for the third quarter.

"What we don't know is if you can kick-start the economy like a dead battery and get it going," said Brian Battle, vice president with Performance Trust Capital Partners in Chicago.

Even with the improvement triggered by the government stimulus programs, there's a long way to go until the national and local economies can be declared healthy again. While there are signs of hope for some manufacturing firms, a question mark continues to hover over sectors that rely on consumers feeling flush -- among them retail, hospitality and real estate.

Dave Miller, owner of Chef By Request Catering in Lisle, sees no signs of a rebound yet.

"If it's working, it's minimal," he said. "Where you have the upper echelon of food service, instead of your lamb chops, they're doing chicken and smaller fillets."

So far he has resisted layoffs among his 11 employees, phasing out only two part-time positions.

"My wishful thinking tells me by the second quarter of 2010, people might be ready," he said. "People are eventually going to get tired of being reserved and being tight with their money."

A number of economists, worried that consumer spending will fade without the government stimulus, are predicting weaker expansion in the fourth quarter and next year, in the 2 to 3 percent range.

While retail spending has come back a bit, it remains bargain-oriented, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. "The high end on Michigan Avenue is still struggling."

In contrast, some manufacturing-oriented firms are experiencing some upswing.

Jim Vassar, owner of Fidelity Tool & Mold, which employs 30 people in Batavia, said sales have returned to 2008 levels after weakness in the first half of this year.




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