(Source: Chicago Tribune)

By Kathy Bergen, Chicago Tribune
Oct. 30--The owner of a plastic molding firm in Batavia feels the shift.
A caterer in Lisle doesn't.
The government says the economy grew in the July-to-September period,
snapping a streak of four straight quarters of economic contraction that
brought the U.S. to the depths of recession and the cusp of a financial
meltdown.
Stocks rallied on the better-than-expected report, with the Dow Jones
industrial average rising 199.89 points, to close at 9962.58, its best day in
3 1/2 months.
But the glimmers of hope contained in Thursday's economic news are not
the stuff of widespread warmth.
The federal government's rebates for car purchases and its $8,000 tax
credit for first-time homebuyers fueled much of the economic expansion, which
clocked in at a 3.5 percent annual growth rate for the third quarter.
"What we don't know is if you can kick-start the economy like a dead
battery and get it going," said Brian Battle, vice president with Performance
Trust Capital Partners in Chicago.
Even with the improvement triggered by the government stimulus programs,
there's a long way to go until the national and local economies can be
declared healthy again. While there are signs of hope for some manufacturing
firms, a question mark continues to hover over sectors that rely on consumers
feeling flush -- among them retail, hospitality and real estate.
Dave Miller, owner of Chef By Request Catering in Lisle, sees no signs of
a rebound yet.
"If it's working, it's minimal," he said. "Where you have the upper
echelon of food service, instead of your lamb chops, they're doing chicken and
smaller fillets."
So far he has resisted layoffs among his 11 employees, phasing out only
two part-time positions.
"My wishful thinking tells me by the second quarter of 2010, people might
be ready," he said. "People are eventually going to get tired of being
reserved and being tight with their money."
A number of economists, worried that consumer spending will fade without
the government stimulus, are predicting weaker expansion in the fourth quarter
and next year, in the 2 to 3 percent range.
While retail spending has come back a bit, it remains bargain-oriented,
said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. "The high end on
Michigan Avenue is still struggling."
In contrast, some manufacturing-oriented firms are experiencing some
upswing.
Jim Vassar, owner of Fidelity Tool & Mold, which employs 30 people in
Batavia, said sales have returned to 2008 levels after weakness in the first
half of this year.