Oct. 31--The heads of two of Latin America's largest multilateral lending organizations said Friday the region is beginning to emerge from the global economic downturn thanks to stronger ties with Asia and healthy commodity prices.

But the twin threats of a weak dollar and higher inflation in the United States could trip up that recovery, they said.

Speaking at the Latin Trade Symposium and Bravo Business Awards in Miami, Luis Alberto Moreno, the president of the Inter-American Development Bank, and Enrique Garcia, the president and chief executive of the Andean Finance Corp., said Latin America has touched bottom and is in a good position to lead the hemisphere's rebound.

Unlike the crisis of the 1990s that led to devaluations, bank failures and political instability, Latin America has weathered this storm and is "ahead of the recovery," Moreno said.

Every nation in the region, except Venezuela, the Bahamas and Jamaica, is expected to register growth in 2010 after this year's downturn, according to World Bank estimates.

But that growth will be far from uniform.

Brazil, Peru and Chile could surge by 5 percent next year, according to some projections, as Asian economies turn to the region for commodities and global investors are drawn by the promise of strong returns.

Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, however, are likely to drag behind because they are reliant on the ailing United States in three critical ways: trade, tourism and remittances, Moreno said.

The United States' longer-term health is also of concern. A swelling U.S. budget deficit and the weakening U.S. dollar could make Latin American exports less competitive and drive up inflation and interest rates, which would put a brake on economic activity, Moreno said.

But even for those nations that are weathering the storm, this is no time for complacency, Garcia said.

In the last 25 years the region has seen its share of global exports drop from 15 percent to 7 percent. And Latin America is still overly reliant on foreign investment. That could create even deeper divisions in the region as money flows into some nations and shuns others.

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