Nov. 1--While it is too soon to judge how weak consumer spending was on Halloween, retail analysts are expecting it to be dreadful.

And that pessimism has retailers worried because Halloween spending is considered a leading indicator of the strength of the upcoming holiday season.

But don't tell Barry Lincoln that Halloween was off this year; he heard quite the opposite from a trusted source -- Captain Morgan.

"People are shelling out the bigger bucks this year," said Lincoln, owner of Midtown's Mr. Lincoln's Costume Shoppe. "People are coming in sooner, getting the more expensive costumes and not batting an eye about paying for them."

Such was the case with Lincoln's Captain Morgan costume. At $225, it's one of the shop's most expensive items. But Lincoln said a customer who had wanted the costume for years, requested it and slapped the cash on the barrel head.

Halloween is "our Christmas" in terms of yearly spending and said business had been good this year, Lincoln said.

But the National Retail Federation expects the economy to bite Halloween spending in the neck. Federation analysts estimate the average consumer spent $56.31 on Halloween festivities this year, down from $66.54 last year.

Still, the federation forecasts Halloween spending to total $4.75 billion, compared to $5.7 billion last year.

"The overriding theme for Americans' Halloween celebrations this year will be, 'How creative can I be,' and 'How little can I spend?'" said said Phil Rist, executive vice president of strategic initiatives for BIG-research, which conducts research for the retail federation.

But Gary Wilkes, president of South Main's Wayne's Candy Co., disagreed.

"Halloween is one of our biggest seasons and it's making a comeback," Wilkes said. "People are trick-or-treating a lot differently now and there's a lot of church alternatives with harvest festivals and police stations and community centers doing things for kids."

Wilkes said the Halloween season was as good as last year, which was "pretty good."

The candy store has been in Memphis for 62 years and has seen many economic cycles. With that, Wilkes said an economy that has people stalling on large purchases, like cars and houses, may help with candy sales.

"In the big scheme of things, candy is one of the cheapest things you can enjoy," Wilkes said. "So you may have a tendency to splurge on candy and treats in different economic cycles."

Kevin Levy, co-owner of Memphis-based Part Works, said the holiday sales season was going as they'd planned, which meant things heated up right before Halloween.