Nov. 1--Halloween is over, and retailers, looking forward to the start of Christmas shopping, are hoping the scares of the past year are behind them.

When Halloween skeletons and jack-o-lanterns disappear from shops, it is never long before the tinsel and evergreens come out to mark the beginning of the most lucrative time of the retail calendar. The end of 2008 was marked by serial shocks in the economy -- and in many people's retirement accounts -- and spooked shoppers held tight to their cash. How retail does this year could indicate whether things are returning to normal, or a new, recession-era version of normal.

"Right now, the mood is changing a little," said Mike Rud, president of the North Dakota Retail Association. He said that businesses were aiming for a 2 percent to 4 percent bump in sales over the holidays. That would cap a tough past year, when the bad economic news was complemented by bad weather. If it was not the recession that kept people out of stores, it was storm after storm that kept people stuck in their homes. The result was a flat fourth quarter last year, Rud said.

"We had a blizzard in one part of the state or another since Thanksgiving," Rud said.

One year later, North Dakotans can look at the economy and think the worst might be over. Things are stabilizing nationally and there are signs the recession is ending. Though unemployment remains high, near 10 percent, the rate remains under 5 percent here. Shoppers might spend with more peace of mind than in 2008's holiday season.

"We don't have that negative feeling we did going into last year," said Lisa Kyes, manager of Barnes & Noble in Bismarck. She expects a good turnout for the Christmas season, with interest being driven by new titles and a new e-book product. "It just feels like people are in a more positive place this year."

Lisa Engelstad, marketing manager for the Kirkwood Mall, said tenants there are looking toward Christmas with hopeful expectations.

"We're seeing sales come around more. We're more optimistic this year," she said.

Nationally, the gloom still persists. The National Retail Federation predicts that holiday spending will be 3.2 percent below last year's level. According to its research, consumers plan to hunt for bargains, patronize discount stores and shift toward the practical, conservative and homemade for their gift-giving. Anxiety about the economy has been part of consumers' outlook for long enough now that it has become normal, according to the federation's study of shopper attitudes.

"It's a very curious time," said Ann Andre, owner of Junk Yard Chic, on Bismarck's Main Avenue.