(Source: Commercial Appeal, The)

By Martin Crutsinger
WASHINGTON - Consumer spending plunged in September by the
largest amount in nine months, reflecting the end of the
government's Cash for Clunkers auto sales program. Incomes, the fuel
for future spending, were flat.
While the government reported that the overall economy grew in
the July-September period, signaling the end of the worst recession
in seven decades, the weakness in spending and incomes as the
quarter ended underscores the fragility of the recovery.
On Wall Street, investors pulled back and stocks erased all the
previous day's big gains. The Dow Jones industrial average lost
249.85 points to close at 9,712.73 . The biggest declines were among
banks, energy and materials companies.
Economists worry that the recovery could falter in coming months
if households cut back on spending to cope with rising unemployment,
heavy debt loads and tight credit conditions.
"With incomes so soft, increased spending will be a struggle,"
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics,
wrote in a note to clients.
The Commerce Department said Friday that spending dropped 0.5
percent in September, the first decline in five months. Personal
incomes were unchanged as workers contend with rising unemployment.
Wages and salaries fell 0.2 percent, erasing a 0.2 percent gain in
August.
A second report showed that wages and benefits including health
care rose just 1.5 percent for the 12 month-period that ended in
September. That's the smallest increase for the Labor Department's
Employment Cost Index on records that date to 1982.
The concern is that much of third-quarter economic growth stemmed
from temporary government programs such as the clunkers sales
incentives that ended in August.
The government said Thursday the gross domestic product, the
broadest measure of economic health, expanded at an annual rate of
3.5 percent in the third quarter, the first increase after a record
four straight declines. A 3.4 percent rise in consumer spending,
which accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity, powered
the gain.
And consumers appear willing to pay a little more for Colgate
toothpaste, Kellogg's Frosted Flakes and Gillette Fusion shavers,
according to earnings released Thursday. Procter & Gamble Co.,
Colgate-Palmolive Co. and Kellogg Co. all gave upbeat reports and
even stronger outlooks for next year.
However, some economists believe that consumer spending will slow
sharply in the current quarter, lowering GDP growth to perhaps 1.5
percent. Analysts said the risk of a double-dip recession cannot be
ruled out over the next year.
The 0.5 percent drop in consumer spending in September followed a
1.4 percent surge in August that was propelled by the big jump in
car sales that month as consumers rushed to take advantage of the
clunkers incentives.
Last month's drop in spending resulted in a boost in the savings
rate to 3.3 percent of after-tax incomes, up from 2.8 percent in
August. Many analysts believe households will keep striving to
increase savings in the months ahead to replenish nest eggs that
were crushed by last year's stock market crash. That also would hold
back spending in the months ahead, weakening the recovery.
The Obama administration is being encouraged to extend some of
the elements of the $787 billion economic stimulus package that
Congress passed in February to jump-start the economy, but the White
House has been cautious in endorsing various proposals being
advanced by Democratic lawmakers for fear of pushing the federal
budget deficit even higher. The deficit hit an all-time high of
$1.42 trillion for the budget year ending Sept. 30.
But inflation remains in check. An inflation gauge tied to
consumer spending edged up just 0.1 percent in September, after a
0.3 percent August rise. Excluding food and energy, the gauge rose
1.3 percent over the past year, well within the Federal Reserve's
comfort zone.
Fed officials meet next week, and economists believe they will
again keep a key interest rate at a record low in an effort to
support the economy given that inflation is not a threat.
Originally published by Martin Crutsinger Associated Press .
(c) 2009 Commercial Appeal, The. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.
A service of YellowBrix, Inc.