Nov. 3--Readers of The News Tribune first met Bruce McCain a year ago when he visited Tacoma to speak with a group of selected high-net-worth clients of Key Private Bank -- where McCain serves as chief investment strategist.

A senior vice president of KeyBank, McCain, 55, graduated with degrees in both accounting and psychology from Boise State University. He has earned a doctorate in business administration from the University of California, Berkeley, and is a Certified Financial Analyst.

Alongside speaking with clients and managing portfolios, McCain also appears regularly both in print and broadcast media.

He was in Tacoma recently to again speak with private and commercial clients.

When last we spoke, the topic was the depth of the recession. Let's talk about how it ends.

Clearly it's been a good year to believe in the recovery early, and we did. One of the hallmarks of a recovery -- the public at large doesn't believe it's a recovery. They haven't been totally convinced. In the most recent report, about 90 percent of the money in retail investing is going into bonds.

Last time, you said that the market would be the harbinger of a sustained turnaround.

Most of our clients don't believe that. They'd look at me across the table. We'd say we need to invest aggressively. I'd hear them say, "I'm too scared." And they're still waiting for the recovery.

But a lot of people have made some good money this year. Assuming that we are in a recovery, is there still money to be made?

What we watch for is everybody becoming exuberant. Then you don't have much more upside. By the time they finally come back, I'd say we've accomplished 70 to 80 percent of the recovery. The additional is real money, and we do want to play for that.

You've had two groups that have been smart: The supply-side economists, they saw the market. More astute were those who keep track of the economic side, and who follow the psychology of the market.

Any examples?

Marty Zweig and Ned Davis Research. (Visit: www.martinzweig.org and www.ndr.com.)

When did you see the turn?

We started moving back to neutral in December. You had to sense it was losing downward momentum.

There's been a large run in gold. Where do you see it going?

There are two different functions, both reassurance for the investor. One, it's a safe way to protect against collapse. Two, it's an inflation hedge. I think that's what's driving gold at this point. Large federal deficits suggest we're going to see big inflation numbers. (But) we've been recommending oil over gold.