Nov. 5--AS WINTER fast approaches, Berks County homeowners are eyeing two forecasts -- for the weather and for energy costs. In October the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted home heating costs this year -- whether using oil, natural gas or electricity -- could be nearly $100 cheaper than last winter for the average homeowner. But that was before oil prices, which had been fl at, rose by about $10 per barrel in the past week. "That may cause an increase in home heating oil prices, but our forecast won't increase dramatically over last month," said Doug McIntyre, an Energy Information Administration analyst. But if oil prices keep rising, it will be a diff erent story, McIntyre acknowledged. Right now, the agency predicts the cost of heating the average home will be $960 this winter. That's about $84, or 8 percent, lower than last winter. The forecast is based on lower fuel prices and a slightly milder winter, McIntyre said. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted that this winter will be warmer than last, and warmer than the average for the past 30 years. One stark exception to the relatively rosy energy picture is the lifting of electric-rate caps for PPL customers starting Jan. 1. PPL Electric Utilities customers who continue to buy their electricity from PPL will see a 29.7 percent rate increase, said company spokesman John Levitski.

A customer using 1,000 kilowatt hours per month now pays $106. That will rise by $31 to $137 in 2010, Levitski said.

He noted that Pennsylvanians are now free to shop around for a lower electricity rate.

PPL serves about 33,000 residential and commercial customers in western Berks.

McIntyre of the energy administration said the biggest savings will be realized by those heating with natural gas or propane, with prices expected to drop by 11 and 14 percent respectively.

The energy agency also projected total U.S. electricity consumption will decline by 3.3 percent late in 2009 and then grow by 1.3 percent in 2010 as the improving economy leads to higher use.

The electricity forecast also is based on a 1.6 percent decline in overall electricity prices but does not take into account increases resulting from the PPL rate caps elimination.

Electricity rate caps will expire for Met-Ed customers -- effectively the rest of Berks County -- on Jan. 1, 2011. Their projected rate increase could be about 20 percent, according to company projections.

Contact Dan Kelly: 610-371-5040 or dkelly@readingeagle.com.

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