Nov. 5--PROVIDENCE -- The end of the "Great Recession" is in sight, but economic recovery in Rhode Island will lag behind its New England neighbors and the rest of the nation in the coming months, according to Andres Carbacho-Burgos, an economist with Moody's Economy.com.

"Rhode Island, like the rest of the United States, is emerging from the Great Recession," he told a collection of the state's top budget officials Wednesday, describing the Ocean State's struggles as the "second-worst recession in Rhode Island history in terms of proportional job losses." Only 1991 was worse.

The rate of recovery, however, will be the slowest in the post-War era, Carbacho-Burgos said, suggesting that substantial job growth won't arrive until 2011 or 2012. And even then, Rhode Island's declining population probably won't grow substantially.

The negative outlook was not altogether unexpected, but indicates that state budget deficits -- and pressure on lawmakers to cut government programs and raise taxes -- will continue to grow.

"I'm waiting for some good news," said Rosemary Booth Gallogly, the governor's chief budget officer. "It's going to be a challenge, because obviously that will translate into a different revenue forecast when we meet next week."

Budget officials representing the state House of Representatives, Senate and the governor's office have been collecting economic data since Friday as part of the fall Revenue Estimating Conference. Next Tuesday, they will decide the size of the state's bank account for the current and coming fiscal year, which supports government programs such as health care for the elderly, state parks, public education, law enforcement and aid to cities and towns.

The health of the economy has a direct impact on the state's largest revenue streams: sales and income taxes.

The rate of layoffs in Rhode Island has subsided substantially since the spring, Carbacho-Burgos said, noting that new hiring "is still at a bottom" and likely won't pick up for another year or so.

Unemployment will peak at 13.8 percent in the second quarter of 2010, while the national rate will peak at just over 10 percent and the New England rate slightly below that, he said. Currently, Rhode Island has a jobless rate of 13 percent.

"It seems that we've hit a record every month," said Robert J. Langlais, assistant director of market information for the state Department of Labor and Training, who presented employment data following the economic forecast.

Indeed, 74,000 Rhode Islanders are out of work, a record high.