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Unemployment nears 10 pct. as rebound remains slow
Friday, November 06, 2009 12:55 AM


(Source: Associated Press/AP Online)trackingBy CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER

WASHINGTON - The economy is rebounding from its deepest slump since the 1930s, but it probably won't seem that way when the government releases its monthly employment report on Friday.

Employers aren't expected to start adding jobs for several more months. Many are skeptical about the strength and sustainability of the recovery,

The nation's economy probably lost a net total of 175,000 jobs in October, pushing the unemployment rate to 9.9 percent, according to a survey of Wall Street economists by Thomson Reuters. The Labor Department report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Most economists think the rate will eventually surpass 10 percent, a level last seen in June 1983.

The economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter, the government said last week, the strongest signal yet that the recession has ended. But that alone won't spur rapid hiring, raising the likelihood of a "jobless recovery."

"You need explosive growth to take the unemployment rate down," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York-based investment firm Miller Tabak & Co.

Greenhaus said the economy soared by nearly 8 percent in 1983 after a steep recession, lowering the jobless rate by 2.5 percentage points that year. But the economy is unlikely to improve that fast this time, as consumers remain cautious and tight credit hinders businesses. In fact, many analysts expect economic growth to moderate early next year, as the impact of various government stimulus programs fades.

On Capitol Hill, the House on Thursday sought to bolster the economy by approving a $24 billion measure that expands a popular homebuyers' tax credit and extends unemployment insurance for 14 to 20 weeks. The additional jobless benefits are intended to prevent almost 2 million recipients from running out of aid during the upcoming holiday season. It is the fourth extension of benefits during the recession and means that unemployed workers in some states can claim up to 99 weeks of support, a record.

The Senate approved the bill Wednesday and President Barack Obama is expected to sign it.

On Wall Street, a better-than-expected jobless claims report and an upbeat forecast from Cisco Systems Inc. buoyed investors Thursday. The Dow Jones industrial average added nearly 204 points to 10,005.96, and broader indexes also gained.

Still, jobs likely will remain scarce even as the economy improves. The uncertainty surrounding the pace of the recovery has made many employers reluctant to hire, economists said.




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